> mediocre programmer won't be able to judge the allegedly expert level output any better than a non-programmer, so I don't see how that would work
Sure. Plenty of businesses are. Particularly in the commercial automation sector that numerically hires the most people.
> more likely that great programmers might just increase their productivity
For those in high-productivity, high-margin businesses, yes. For most of the world, no—the surplus productivity doesn’t outweigh the compensation and concentration risk.
I broadly expect a spate of age discrimination lawsuits in the near future because most businesses don’t need a few stars. In the meantime, I’ve watched a lot of people find two people in Brazil + an LLM equals one WFH very good (but not brilliant) coder.
I think it is more likely that great programmers might just increase their productivity even more with, which will make their value even greater.