You’re not thinking statistically. At shorter distances the tier 2 men dominate the women who happen to be mentally stronger but physically weaker
At longer distances the mental advantage for the top women start to matter more than their physical disadvantage when compared with the men who happen to be physically tougher but mentally weaker than them
Ok, but that is just asserting that mental toughness is what matters here. And it ignores the fact that there are far more men in the slightly less than ultra marathon world than women, so shouldn't there also be more men with a chance to win if mental toughness is equally distributed?
Maybe it's the fact that women have a higher percentage of type 1 muscle fibers than men, and it just takes until ultra marathon level distances that the increased proportion of type 1 fibers makes up for the relative higher percentage of type 2 fibers in men. Or maybe women are more efficient at burning fat than men are.
At longer distances the mental advantage for the top women start to matter more than their physical disadvantage when compared with the men who happen to be physically tougher but mentally weaker than them