I would love to finally see some real competition with iOS in the tablet space, but my feeling is that this isn't it. It's Windows Phone 7, bigger. And that worked beautifully for Apple, but nobody has been buying Windows Phone.
Don't underestimate the value of Microsoft Office. A lot of people are completely dependent and vendor locked on MS Office. No matter how good Android and iOS tablets are, they're not able to be the only computer of someone who's been Office-locked. So even if the Surface comes out with a few rough edges, there might be a surprisingly big audience.
I personally use TeX for docs, mutt for e-mail and don't really use spreadsheets, so I'm quite indifferent about this.
Windows Phone had to compete with entrenched rivals, and was very late to the party.
Metro is bundled with an OS that is essentially assured a crap-tonne of sales before it's launched. It'll also have more exposure (in retail space etc) than every other laptop and desktop out there.
Not saying it's a slam dunk, but if I were Apple or Google I'd be concerned.
Windows Phone had to compete with entrenched rivals, and was very late to the party.
Windows Phone wasn't Microsoft's first dance on the smartphone floor. In fact they were one of the very first on smartphones with Windows CE, heralded as a sure thing because it was "bundled with an OS" with some sort of desktop synergy that assured world dominance.
We know how that turned out. Apple and RIM ate their lunch, and the synergy with the desktop thing was an anchor instead of a lift.
It's a fair point, but I don't believe the comparison holds this time round.
Firstly, Windows CE was demonstrably years behind tech-wise - even a causal grandmother consumer could see the difference between an iPhone and a CE device. That's not the case here: this looks (to casual eyes) like an iPad equivalent.
Secondly that time round they went at it by making the phone alude to the Windows brand. Here they're using the Windows sales (which are assured) to get Metro in front of users.
Thirdly they're now copying a proven thing (the iPad). Last time they were half-leading the charge for semi-smartphones, and never figured out the right tech to evangelise people. They've always been better at copying than at innovating afresh.
Forthly they're all in. They basically screwed the desktop OS over to put tablets front and centre. All their considerable weight and spending power will be behind this - in shops up and down the land.
Of course it's not over yet. But if they play this right, it could be very interesting game indeed.
- Microsoft was in the phone business long before the iPhone and their allegiance to Windows was one of the big reasons they sucked.
- Massive Windows 8 sales numbers are far from guaranteed.
- They've diverged pretty radically from the iPad UI. I'm happy to see this, but this also means they can't count on similarities to the iPad to drive sales.
This may in fact turn out to be a hit but I'm not persuaded by your arguments.
I had one of the first O2 XDA phones (released 2002) and also one of the first iphones. I'd say the biggest improvement was in the network speed and price of the data packages over the (5?) years or so between those two purchases. I'm not saying the iPhone doesn't roundly trounce it in general, just other things matter more.
