I believe the following is going to happen:

- AI will fizzle because businesses won't be able to make enough money with LLM relative to the costs, NVDA and tech will plummet

- Inflation will rise again

- Global Recession. I think China will be the center of a financial crisis

The nVidia Cisco parallel I think is reasonable but AI is also the current version of the 90s/2000 Internet growth engine. So it will be huge.. the trough of despair may not be avoidable however, but as sure as digitalization, AI will take over.. AI is definitely winner take all except for the open source part of it which levels the playing field somewhat.

I believe we have reached 85-90% of what AI/LLMs will achieve with current technologies, and further progress with be asymptotic. I don’t believe more parameters were make them better and companies will spend billions training and realize this.

I also think there will be a huge war in terms of AI-consumable content and many content creators will sue AI companies that use their content without licensing it. It’s going to become extremely expensive for new AIs to get trained in my opinion, and businesses still won’t be able to make money from them.

What's your rationale for inflation?

Core PPI inflation from the last 3 months was 5% on an annualized basis.