I think you have a very thoughtful take but believe it's a mistake to think of 'NoSQL' as a monolithic category..
There's a very wide spectrum from having an evolvable document oriented data model with evolvable strongly consistent secondary indexes, transactions, aggregations, and joins to simplistic key/value stores like DynamoDB and Cassandra that do force you into a very much waterfall posture that I think you are spot on in pointing out.
There's a very wide spectrum from having an evolvable document oriented data model with evolvable strongly consistent secondary indexes, transactions, aggregations, and joins to simplistic key/value stores like DynamoDB and Cassandra that do force you into a very much waterfall posture that I think you are spot on in pointing out.