32%->27%->28%->30% appear to be just rounding errors, especially considering the number of individuals concerned.
If anything, such numbers indicate to me that homeownership rates haven't meaningfully changed and the only thing that did change is the advent of noisey narratives.
> appear to be just rounding errors, especially considering the number of individuals concerned
Isn't it in fact the opposite? The bigger population, the easier to find a significant signal? Those are variances of millions of people. We wouldn't treat a 5% swing in unemployment as a rounding error, would we?
> If unemployment keeps hovering around 30% +/-5% over basically a century, that is in fact a rounding error.
“rounding error” isn’t typically used to describe double-digit percentage changes. You might say within normal variation but it’s a significant change and, ignoring the fact that those numbers are much greater than the actual unemployment rate, it’s well over the measurement precision and real shifts of millions of people are going to be scrutinized.
>“rounding error” isn’t typically used to describe double-digit percentage changes.
What? We're talking about a 5 percentage points variance, that is a single digit percentage point change. This is regarding a 29 percentage points average over a span of like 80 years concerning millions if not billions of people.
That is a rounding error, whether it's home ownership or unemployment or whatever you want those numbers to be.
35 is 15% larger than 30. Our measurements for unemployment are precise enough that it’s not just margin of error.
At the moment, that’s a change of 16 million people. A century ago, it was 5 million people. Both of those numbers are large enough that they absolutely would get attention and public discussion.
If something trends give or take 30% for 80 years or more, a +/-3% variance is a fucking rounding error. I don't care if it's home ownership or unemployment or whatever the number is, it is a rounding error not worthy of concern.
It's like the lowering and rising of the tides. It goes up and down, but the sea level remains basically the same overall; thus, nobody cares about the exact tide at an exact time for figuring out sea level because it's a rounding error.
Put more bluntly: The trend has not changed, what is there worthy of my concern?
Because the economy is a complex system which is constantly changing, and it’s important not to lose track of why we measure it. A 5% charge likely isn’t evenly distributed, and the real impacts are often masked – if a major industry moves offshore, there are inevitably regional impacts more significant than the national average and if a bunch of people get new jobs working at McDonald’s or delivering Amazon packages it matters that they and their communities are poorer even if it looks like the unemployment rate is back to where it was 3 years ago. The minor fluctuations are the cue to look at the responsible factors, not to say “meh, it’s 15%, not 50%” and ignore it.
If anything, such numbers indicate to me that homeownership rates haven't meaningfully changed and the only thing that did change is the advent of noisey narratives.