I can estimate rather accurately how much time it will take me to cook a meal assuming that:
- I already mastered the receipt as I prepared the very exact same one many times in the past
- I already checked that I have all the ingredients required at hand
- I will cook in my own kitchen
- no entropy engine (aka family members) was thrown before in the kitchen to put utensils in an other place than the place were I tidily store them (admittedly without conducting formal formation of the rest of the disruption forces)
- no one will interfere because the way I do it is not the super fancy other way in which it could also be done
- no external catastrophe happen which obviously need to be taken care of immediately, just at this point in recipe where by the time I will come back most of what I did so far will be better started again from scratch because the underlying laws of physics I was assuming so far changed so significantly that the left ongoing work is now utterly incompatible with the divergences that universe bumped to
Meanwhile, in the easier transparent stationary landscape of software development, whenever I came with a to-my-mind-credible estimate for a non trivial endeavor, it was systematically rejected and superseded by a soon-to-be-blown-away deadline.
- I already mastered the receipt as I prepared the very exact same one many times in the past
- I already checked that I have all the ingredients required at hand
- I will cook in my own kitchen
- no entropy engine (aka family members) was thrown before in the kitchen to put utensils in an other place than the place were I tidily store them (admittedly without conducting formal formation of the rest of the disruption forces)
- no one will interfere because the way I do it is not the super fancy other way in which it could also be done
- no external catastrophe happen which obviously need to be taken care of immediately, just at this point in recipe where by the time I will come back most of what I did so far will be better started again from scratch because the underlying laws of physics I was assuming so far changed so significantly that the left ongoing work is now utterly incompatible with the divergences that universe bumped to
Meanwhile, in the easier transparent stationary landscape of software development, whenever I came with a to-my-mind-credible estimate for a non trivial endeavor, it was systematically rejected and superseded by a soon-to-be-blown-away deadline.