Yes the "first mover advantage" is mostly just a common myth in business that refuses to die, but if we look at the original statement:
> Founders and company builders will continue to build in AI—and they will be more likely to succeed, because they will benefit both from lower costs and from learnings accrued during this period of experimentation
This still lines up with the 2nd wave benefiting more. The first movers helped established the large scale AI hardware industry, got a bunch of smart kids trained on how to make AI, a bunch of people will fail and learn, etc and this experimentation stage sets the groundwork for OpenAI 2.0.
We could very well just in the Altavista vs Yahoo days of AI and an upstart takes over in 5yrs.
> Founders and company builders will continue to build in AI—and they will be more likely to succeed, because they will benefit both from lower costs and from learnings accrued during this period of experimentation
This still lines up with the 2nd wave benefiting more. The first movers helped established the large scale AI hardware industry, got a bunch of smart kids trained on how to make AI, a bunch of people will fail and learn, etc and this experimentation stage sets the groundwork for OpenAI 2.0.
We could very well just in the Altavista vs Yahoo days of AI and an upstart takes over in 5yrs.