Yep. I'm also not a statistician, but linear regression that the blogger is using predicts the mean for each state, and this is being conflated with trying to predict p(color | state). The goodness of fit here would be better modeled cross entropy and not a standard deviation.
Haha, this is why I always Google whoever the author is to articles posted on HN before commenting. More than once I've thought "this person is an idiot" only to Google their name and find out they are a famous person in that field. Then I go back and re-read their article and realize I missed something more subtle going on.
The blog post was rebutted by Seth in the comments 2 weeks ago, same as Colin Percival's HN rebuttal, and Andrew didn't reply. It seems like a weird goof. Andrew was "buggin".
Yeah, the more I read the post the more confused I am actually. At first glance to me this seemed like a non-paradox. So I kept wondering if I'm missing something, but based on everyone's responses, maybe I'm not?
