>> A huge amount of economic value is going to be created by AI. Company builders focused on delivering value to end users will be rewarded handsomely.
> Such strong speculative predictions about the future, with no evidence.
The speculation makes sense from a VC's perspective, but perhaps not from the perspective of society at large (i.e. human workers).
From the revenue-generating use cases of LLMs (== AI in the article) that I've seen so far, most seem to be about replacing human mental labor with LLMs.
The replacement of workers with AI-based machines will likely happen in mature industries whose market growth is basically capped. Productivity will stay mostly the same, but the returns will increase dramatically as the human workforce is hollowed out.
To the extent that AI instead empowers some workers to multiply their productivity with the same amount of effort, then it can create more economic value overall, and this may happen in industries with a long growth runway ahead.
On balance, it's not clear to me whether the growth (in productivity and employment) that comes from the latter will be enough to offset the employment losses from the former.
But in either scenario, the VCs investing in AI win, either from efficiency gains, or from accelerating growth in new industries.
> Such strong speculative predictions about the future, with no evidence.
The speculation makes sense from a VC's perspective, but perhaps not from the perspective of society at large (i.e. human workers).
From the revenue-generating use cases of LLMs (== AI in the article) that I've seen so far, most seem to be about replacing human mental labor with LLMs.
The replacement of workers with AI-based machines will likely happen in mature industries whose market growth is basically capped. Productivity will stay mostly the same, but the returns will increase dramatically as the human workforce is hollowed out.
To the extent that AI instead empowers some workers to multiply their productivity with the same amount of effort, then it can create more economic value overall, and this may happen in industries with a long growth runway ahead.
On balance, it's not clear to me whether the growth (in productivity and employment) that comes from the latter will be enough to offset the employment losses from the former.
But in either scenario, the VCs investing in AI win, either from efficiency gains, or from accelerating growth in new industries.