Again, FSD is just not doing anything that interesting. It only handles the easy scenarios, and punts to a driver for everything else, at a moment's notice. And it still constantly fails, per everyone who tries it, in even very simple situations. Look at what this article author found: that's just not something that happens with Waymo or Mercedes.

You're pretty much exactly 180 degrees in the wrong in that one. Due to the deep NN-based approach, FSD can react to the minutest of changes like seeing ahead of the car in front, or even hand signals by pedestrians to decide how to drive.

Again, even mentioning Waymo here proves you don't have the slightest idea of what you're talking about. Might as well compare FSD to trains, trains also "steer themselves" lol

The hardest parts of self driving are related to interacting with others on the road - other cars, pedestrians, cyclists, animals, debris etc. Waymo has mostly solved these problems, in a real environment, with only some simple limitations in top speed (and a major limitation for climate - they don't work in heavy rain, fog, snow, etc). Sure, the environment is fully mapped out, so it's not easy to scale their solution. But they've solved an extremely difficult problem extremely well, with some well defined constraints.

FSD has no defined constraints, sure. But it is FAR from solving the problems that Waymo has solved, and far from solving the problems that the CEO has promised to solve. If you hacked a Tesla to run with FSD without a driver in the car and let it roam in real traffic, even in Phoenix, it will crash within the first 100km. It's very, very far from being able to safely work without human intervention.

And NNs are inherently very noisy, so they are not a promising approach for a safety critical system. Combining that with pure camera vision, which is very limited even in animals that have literally had billions of years of training, is a fool's errand. FSD as it exists right now does not work, and will never work. Time will show this: Tesla will either give FSD up, or will switch to camera+LIDAR.

"Trains have solved the problems FSD is struggling with. They deal with junctions with automated signposts, and have a well established architecture of also avoiding train-to-train-crashes."

Your example just demonstrates my point. Waymo is not comparable because their "solution" is a dead end while FSD basically just works when being demonstrated in Europe and Asia even though it likely has like 0.1% or less of kilometers of having been driven there when comparing to US.

>it will crash

Just not true. Even ignoring that FSD can often go way longer without an intervention, remember, the "interventions" are extremely subjective and are just done when the driver becomes uncomfortable for reason or another. Many times likely the intervention just makes the car less safe in the situation, and the driver does it simply because they just had a different idea of how to fit a gap and were surprised by the car's plan. But the intervention logic is there to case for a ton of angles including legal and bug reporting / "feeling" safe instead of just purely _being_ safe.

>And NNs are inherently very noisy, so they are not a promising approach for a safety critical system

We're just replacing an NN with another one that is better. Replacing our transit system with something more mechanical akin to automatic train signaling systems (and getting rid of roads and cars!) isn't really in the books so blaming NN's is a moot point. Talking about LIDAR verifies that you don't actually have understanding of the history of FSD-like systems. LIDAR is easier for a beginner dev operation to start with but won't scale and is a fools errand given we already have the bloody reference of the previous control system working purely with vision!

FSD is the long term future and without comparison. Elon having been over optimistic about the timeline doesn't make it any less world-changing.