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It's the wrong question.

It's like asking "How long until a bulldozer [1] fully replaces a human construction worker?" A bulldozer is not a full replacement for a human construction worker. However, 1 worker with a bulldozer can do the work of 10 workers with shovels. And 10 workers with bulldozers can build things no amount of workers with shovels can.

[1] I'm using bulldozer as shorthand for all automated construction equipment - front end loaders, backhoes, cranes, etc.




But then the 10 shovel-wielding humans are out of a job, right? The employer isn't just going to give everyone bulldozers.

It'll be one guy with a bulldozer doing the work of ten men.


Buggy-whip makers aren’t around anymore…

New tech drives job changes. Always has, always will. No guarantee that the changes are good for every individual. And there’s no guarantee that they are good in the aggregate, either.


Or you become a bug hunter for 10 AI shovels who are now your senior.




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