No, my bad. When you said "10B to 40B of compute", I read that as "growing from 10B to 40B of compute", that is, a 4X increase. I failed to understand it as "growing by 81X from current compute, which would put you at about 10B to 40B".

I don't know what current GPT-4 compute is. I don't know if your assumption is correct, but I certainly do not know that it is wrong.