> The cost of renting a gas car once a year or calling a taxi when you're stranded are comparatively tiny compared to retaining full-time ICEs just in case
That is because a lot of people have ICE cars already.
If there were a lot of people like you, I suspect rentals would get more expensive. In addition, because of the likelihood of correlation (for example a blizzard that knows out power) you may have a bunch of people also wanting to rent he ICEs at the same time making them unavailable for you.
And also, EV charging would a lot better than it is now. Gas stations are everywhere because the cars are everywhere. If EVs were the bulk of cars on the road, the charging experience would be better than it is now in the same way.
Sure, but electricity still isn't a great energy vector for mobile applications. A gas pump pumps at an equivalent rate of 3MW or so after accounting for thermal losses in the vehicle. To match that with electricity, someone is either dispatching capacity on demand, or you're already generating it and curtailing it, which puts to bed any arguments about efficiency.
Electricity only really exists in a transient state, and has to be stored in bricks made up of complex materials that are harder to scale than equivalent chemical storage mechanisms.
That's not the same thing as saying EVs have no place, because they clearly do, but I don't think that place is as a general replacement for a standard vehicle in societies that rely heavily on cars. I think they're a niche product there.
That kinda skirts the main reason EVs are being pushed which is that ICEs absorb energy very quickly and then spew massive amounts of byproduct out the back and into the air. EVs are less efficient at storing energy, but vastly more efficient at emissions. And the cost of ICEs are foisted on the entire world and not paid by drivers.
ICEs can run on pretty much anything, and there are a number of easy-to-make fuels that are carbon neutral or even carbon negative. Case in point: the global shipping industry is in the early stages of transitioning to green methanol as a fuel. They have trials of the fuel underway, new engine designs being made, and every indication is that they're serious about the transition. Modern cars are perfectly capable of running on methanol with minor modifications, and it's certainly more cost effective than buying a brand new vehicle. If we're going to be running the whole shipping industry on green fuels, I don't see any reason why we can't do the same for cars. Doing so is almost certainly a lower emissions path than replacing the whole fleet with EVs, and would still be necessary even if we did electrify most of the fleet, because battery electric just isn't suitable for some tasks. Long haul trucking, for example, won't be electrified any time soon.
I live in such a society. I replaced my ICE vehicle with electric 2 years ago. I'm not going back. They CAN be a replacement but not for everybody. This equivalent pumping rate thing is interesting but it doesn't really capture the whole thing. I don't have gasoline deliveries to my house. What about oil changes per year?
The calculus changes for ubiquitous slow charging, and I think that's really where EVs make the most sense. The issue is that the fast charging problem needs to be solved for EVs to have functional parity for certain use cases that do affect purchasing habits (i.e. a car is expensive enough for me that I buy for all of my needs, not my average need).
Ultimately, everyone needs to make the call for themselves. I'm glad you're happy with your EV, but I can't see myself purchasing one within the next fifteen years or so. Even then, I'd still have an ICEV backup. But that's based on my particular needs, and not necessarily applicable to others.
I’ve been looking at a house in a city I visit often, thinking of buying it and renting it out via AirBnB or VRBO or similar. The Chinese EVs that are coming to the US market are cheap, less than a golf cart, and suitable for city driving. I would buy one to use there. Slow charging would be fine; I wouldn’t drive its 100 km range in a weekend, and 35 mph/56 km/h is enough speed for almost all my driving there.
But at home, I have to get on the limited-access highway to get to work (there really isn’t a good alternative). If it can’t travel at 100 km/h, it’s not a suitable commuter car, but that puts it in a very different price range.
And I’m still going to use the ICE car to get there and back. Needs 320 km each way of range with air conditioning running to be viable. That’s a trip I make at least every six weeks. The ICE car has a range of almost 1000 km on a full tank.
EVs have a lot of potential but there are still a lot of details to work out.
I'm curious, how often do you change the battery? A few years? What's the price? Genuinely curious as this is also part of my consideration when switching to EV.
Never. My sister-in-law had the same Model S for like 11 years. There was no need.
The whole thing about expensive battery replacements every 3 years is mostly propaganda from entrenched interests. There are legitimate isolated horror stories, but battery replacements don't generally need to be a thing. Do your own research, but that's my experience. I know a fair number of EV owners.
That is because a lot of people have ICE cars already.
If there were a lot of people like you, I suspect rentals would get more expensive. In addition, because of the likelihood of correlation (for example a blizzard that knows out power) you may have a bunch of people also wanting to rent he ICEs at the same time making them unavailable for you.