I have no window into this world but I am curious if you know anything about the techniques that investors used to short or just analyze Tesla stock during the production hell of 2017-2020? It was an interesting window in ways that firms use to measure as much of the company as they can from the outside. In fact was there any other stock that was as heaving watched during that time?
Looking back at that era it seemed investors were too focused on the numbers and fundamentals, even setting up live feeds of the factories to count the number of cars coming out and thats the same feeling I get from your post. It seems like dumb analysis ie. analysis without much context.
We now know from the recent Isaacson biography what was happening on the other side. The shorts failed to measure the clever unorthodox ways that Musk and co would take to get the delivery numbers up. For example: The famous Tent. Musk used a loophole in CA laws to set up a giant tent in the parking lot and allowed him to boost the production by eliminating entire bottlenecks from the factory design. There is also just the religious like fervor with which the employees wanted to beat the shorts. I dont think this can be measured no? It helped to get them past the finish line.
Most companies aren’t obsessed enough with shortens to try and hide poor results from analysis that will be exposed in 3 months anyway. There’s always ways around them - number of cars registered, number of delivery trucks visiting, time for delivery on website, how much overtime is being worked etc.
Markets aren't sports teams, i.e. bimodal camps with us vs. them drama. Twitter discussion of markets, maybe, but not markets.
I've been on both sides of this trade, regularly.
Bear thesis back then was same as now. In retrospect, I give it a few more credits because Elon says they were getting close to bankrupt while he was posting "bankwupt" memes and selling short shorts.
Being a pessimist, and putting your money where your mouth is in markets, is difficult because you have to be right and have the right timing.
Looking back at that era it seemed investors were too focused on the numbers and fundamentals, even setting up live feeds of the factories to count the number of cars coming out and thats the same feeling I get from your post. It seems like dumb analysis ie. analysis without much context.
We now know from the recent Isaacson biography what was happening on the other side. The shorts failed to measure the clever unorthodox ways that Musk and co would take to get the delivery numbers up. For example: The famous Tent. Musk used a loophole in CA laws to set up a giant tent in the parking lot and allowed him to boost the production by eliminating entire bottlenecks from the factory design. There is also just the religious like fervor with which the employees wanted to beat the shorts. I dont think this can be measured no? It helped to get them past the finish line.