Is there any particular reason we should assign any weight to this guess of yours? People have been calling “peak bitcoin from which it won’t recover” for at least 5 cycles now.
My belief is that it would be shocking if Bitcoin's market cap got close to gold, because gold has substantial fundamental value (which prevents the price fron collapsing) and a long tradition.
Another reason is that the narrative that Bitcoin's price will at least double or triple won't be believable if Bitcoin gets to 1.5% of world wealth. When hodlers realize that they will not double their money, the rationale for hodling disappears.
If you don't think bitcoin can even get close to gold, then you really don't understand bitcoin yet. Smashing golds market cap will happen in less than 6 years. And that's just the start.
You claim that gold has "fundamental value" and imply that bitcoin doesn't.
If you don't understand why bitcoin has fundamental value, then I'd bet you don't understand why gold has either. If you understand why gold has fundamental value, it's self evident why bitcoin has it too (far, far more in fact).
I just don't have time unfortunately, it's a large subject.
But if you're genuinely interested in learning why bitcoin is fundamentally much better money than gold or fiat, or in fact anything else then I highly recommend listening to at least the first 9 episodes of this podcast series - one of the most interesting podcasts I've ever heard:
If Bitcoin was much better money than fiat, people would use it.
My country's currency is much better money than Bitcoin. I can pay basically everywhere with contactless payments, I did this 5 times today and it couldn't be any simpler. I can send money instantly to anyone in my country for free.
Volatility is minimal because the central bank actively tries to minimize it. Bitcoin or gold don't have this stabilizing mechanism, so they will always have worse volatility (assuming a responsible central bank).
Losses due to inflation are negligible if you have your money in a savings account and use other assets (stocks, bonds, real estate) for long-term saving.
If you want to use Bitcoin for long-term savings, the competitor is not fiat but stocks / bonds / real estate. And I don't see a good argument for Bitcoin. In a sufficiently long time horizon, stocks are guaranteed to outperform Bitcoin given some weak assumptions.
> Volatility is minimal because the central bank actively tries to minimize it. Bitcoin or gold don't have this stabilizing mechanism, so they will always have worse volatility (assuming a responsible central bank).
> In a sufficiently long time horizon, stocks are guaranteed to outperform Bitcoin given some weak assumptions.
In a sufficiently long time horizon, stocks will be priced in bitcoin. Rather than an index fund giving you 7% but with a 7-10% devaluation of your fiat (i.e. net return of -3% to 0%), it will return you 7% with no devaluation of the underlying money (net 7%).
Bitcoin is first proving itself as a store-of-value (fundamental for any money), then once it's growth has reached the point that it is stable enough to be used as a unit of account and medium of exchange, it will be, through demand from the people. Any volatility will be measured against bitcoin, not the other way round.
If I need to go through 10 podcast episodes to understand why bitcoin is better than gold, that makes me seriously question whether bitcoin is better than gold. Things that are actually better shouldn't need that long of an explanation.
Example: Why is gold better than fiat currency? Because the government can't print more of it, thereby devaluing all the currency you possess. Sure, there's much more detail than that (on both sides), but the basic proposition can be stated in one sentence.
So if you can't say that for crypto, then it does sound like you don't have a very strong argument.
Why is bitcoin going to suck in all the stored value in the world? Because it's better money than fiat (or gold).
Why is it better money, well to explain that we need to answer the question, "what is money?". And that topic is so broad Robert Breedlove has a 453-epsiode podcast channel discussing the subject.
So please accept the 10 episodes I point you to as a quick summary, carefully selected by myself after 1000's of hours of research into the subject. You're welcome.
