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I think even more difficult than making it affordable will be making it reliable. OK-Robot says it has has a 1/3 failure rate, and takes ~20x as long as a human, at which point you might as well do the task yourself. I'd want the error rate and speed improved by an order of magnitude before I'd consider it anything other than a fun novelty.



AI technology is advancing at an exponential rate currently. The inquiry remains whether there's a limit to these technologies' potential.


And as your error rate decreases, it gets exponentially more difficult to decrease it further. My guesstimate is that even ignoring the hardware issue, it would be at least a decade until we get AI capable of reaching human-level performance in household object manipulation (across a big enough class of household objects to be significantly useful in multiple tasks per day).




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