I do not expect SBF to express remorse, be a model prisoner, etc. I expect him to royally misunderstand the rules of the game, which he routinely does in formal settings.
> I expect him to royally misunderstand the rules of the game
What a weird take on his behavior. His parents are law professors, he had an army of lawyers working for him at the time, yet he just didn't care and did what he felt like, knowing full well the damage it would do, because that was the whole point. There is no misunderstanding, it was just indifference.
This was true for a long time, but the "First Step" act, passed I think in 2021, increased the good behavior credit maximum to 50%.
Realistically then, SBF is looking at 11.5 years if he can stay out of trouble, which is relatively easy for white-collar criminals in relatively low security prisons.
He's proven repeatedly that he's incapable of abiding by the conditions of his parole. What makes everyone in this thread so sure he'll demonstrate "good behavior"?
Let's be honest here, "good behavior" is extremely easy to demonstrate in prison where everyone else is constantly getting in fights, beating up guards, etc. It's not a high bar and a person like SBF should easily be able to do that.
There is many other ways to get written up and lose time credits like sharing commissary, having too many books, and sometimes fighting is not optional if your cellmates are into stupid things and drag you with them.
It depends if he is sent to a USP like regular federal convicts or club fed minimum because of his connections. Typically club fed you can only get through a plea bargain like Madoff or through years of good time credits.
The big problem for SBF I think is that he's been shown to have "no filter", or no regard for accepted norms. That could bite him even in federal prison (and he has to go to a medium security, I believe, because of the length of the sentence).
Piss off an inmate and get in an even slight altercation, lose some of your good behavior points.
12.5 years would be possible only if he scored 100% on good behavior.
IIRC it's 85%. Federal prison does not have parole, but they do give some credit for good behavior, up to 15%.