There is a counter argument in the book "The Race for a New Game Machine" that makes the case that the early release was a key factor in passing the PS3. If next XBox holds on, it will be money well spent.
I'll certainly take a look at that, but I remain unconvinced thus far.
The PS3 was demonstrably price-bound for its entire first few years on the market. The existence of the 360 or its early lead just didn't seem to matter. And the "needed to launch first" position has a habit of entirely writing off any negative effect of having poisoned gamers against MS Hardware quality. (Which to that point had a spotless reputation.)
