Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

Do you offer monte carlo simulations for forecasting?



Yes! Causal natively supports Monte Carlo simulation. E.g. instead of writing "7.5%" in a cell, you can write "5% to 10%" and it will turn that into a distribution, and automatically run a few thousand samples with different values every time it re-calculates.

Docs: https://docs.causal.app/formulas/values-with-uncertainty


This alone makes me want to try Causal. I run my business with a gargantuan Google Sheet. It works - we nail our numbers. But scenario testing is very hard.


Nice — definitely try Causal out! We have a 'scenarios' feature that lets you easily spin up "discrete" scenarios, and then you can use the Monte Carlo stuff to see continuous ranges of outcomes.


This reminds me a lot of calculators I use for FIRE, ie the ones shown here [0]. Perhaps I should try Causal for personal use as well as for business use. I've also seen Maybe [1] for personal finances, which looks good too.

[0] https://engaging-data.com/early-retirement-calculators-and-t...

[1] https://github.com/maybe-finance/maybe


It'd be great if you can share the model once you've built it. We can add it to our template library :)


It is likely that I won't do that in the case of your program, just letting you know as I just use my own Excel or Google Sheets program. If you would like to include it, please feel free to do so.


That's amazing




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: