But note that at the end of that century, the CO2 is still there and will continue to heat the atmosphere indefinitely. We really need to stop adding carbon to the cycle; optimizing the form of that carbon can only ever be a secondary goal.
> optimizing the form of that carbon can only ever be a secondary goal.
If I may be permitted to reiterate: 28x GWP impact factor. Cherry-picking CH4 is hardly premature optimization...it's pure low-hanging fruit!
Consider this paper published in Nature Communications[1] which analyzed CH4 emissions from just low production natural gas well sites in the US. From the abstract:
>> Here, we integrate national site-level O&G production data and previously reported site-level CH4 measurement data (n = 240) and find that low production well sites are a disproportionately large source of US O&G well site CH4 emissions, emitting more than 4 (95% confidence interval: 3—6) teragrams, 50% more than the total CH4 emissions from the Permian Basin, one of the world’s largest O&G producing regions. We estimate low production well sites represent roughly half (37—75%) of all O&G well site CH4 emissions, and a production-normalized CH4 loss rate of more than 10%—a factor of 6—12 times higher than the mean CH4 loss rate of 1.5% for all O&G well sites in the US.
...and further into the paper:
>> At low production well sites, field observations report a common theme revolving around the issue of well site equipment negligence and disrepair as the primary driver of CH4 emissions. Most proximately, recent work by Deighton et al. documents several of these maintenance-related issues, including, for example, (i) leaks at fittings and joints, (ii) leaks and vents from rusted pump jacks, tanks, and other onsite gathering infrastructure, and (iii) evidence of well site neglect or poor maintenance, such as wellheads or casings covered in weeds or fallen trees.
In summary, an estimated 4 teragrams (4 million metric tons) annual CH4 leakage as a direct consequence of operations/maintenance negligence in just the US. Scaled by 28x GWP factor and now we're in the ballpark of 112 million metric tons CO2 equivalence.
Sounds like a big number, but I need a more relatable proxy to square that figure. This source[2] suggests a typical adult human generates 0.9 kg CO2 per day just breathing. Therefore, the value prop of dropping the penal hammer hard on negligent US low production natural gas site operators implies a CO2 sequestration equivalence of offing 341 million warm adult human bodies...effectively the entire US population! Apologies for the morbid anolog, but it's perhaps much easier to internalize impact by this measure.
Only a secondary goal? Sorry, the notion doesn't pass this layman's ballpark sniff test.
