Oh, I don't claim that complexity is impossible to recognize. It's really important to do so. But how?
Most judgments of complexity we currently make have a lot to do with familiarity. (Is the 40-line spreadsheet program at http://www.nsl.com/k/s/s.k complicated or simple?) You assume something similar when you say "obviously more complex than it needs to be". When is complexity obvious? When it exceeds what we habitually consider ok.
What we really need is an objective measurement. Do we have one? We sort of do, insofar as the research on this seems to point in one direction: shorter programs are simpler. That doesn't answer every question - you still need a way of measuring program length and defining what a program is - but it's the beginning of an objective answer.
For evaluating a refactoring or using a library/framework, you can compare the number of statements that would be used to add a given feature before vs. after the refactoring.
What's harder is to evaluate the effect of adopting a certain pattern or framework will have on the cost of future refactorings. I don't think people do even a back of the envelope estimation of even just the first number. The number of statements put in can probably be used to estimate the cost in man hours.
My preference would be to put it in when it pays for itself (i.e. makes the code smaller) and not before. Otherwise it's too easy to fall victim to one's own spin.
Most judgments of complexity we currently make have a lot to do with familiarity. (Is the 40-line spreadsheet program at http://www.nsl.com/k/s/s.k complicated or simple?) You assume something similar when you say "obviously more complex than it needs to be". When is complexity obvious? When it exceeds what we habitually consider ok.
What we really need is an objective measurement. Do we have one? We sort of do, insofar as the research on this seems to point in one direction: shorter programs are simpler. That doesn't answer every question - you still need a way of measuring program length and defining what a program is - but it's the beginning of an objective answer.