FSD, upon activation: "Full Self-Driving (Beta). Full Self-Driving is in early limited access Beta and must be used with additional caution. It may do the wrong thing at the worst time. Do not become complacent. ... Use FSD in limited Beta only if you will pay constant attention to the road, and be prepared to act immediately, specially around blind corners, crossing intersection, and in narrow driving situations. Do you want to enable FSD while it is in limited Beta?"
This dude: "Elon said it's safe, I'm going to drink and drive!"
Is it? I'd heard Tesla was being too tight lipped for any conclusions to be made at this point, but if you've got a study or source I'd love to see it!
As far as proving how unsafe it is, no one can do it unless Tesla is transparent with their data. Deliberately hiding that data doesn't automatically mean it's safer than humans, so yes, their claims are indeed highly misleading.
I see a lot of folks casting doubts and asking questions like you in the linked thread, but nobody seems willing to dispute the signal itself, just it's relevance. From the top comment:
> You're essentially telling us that drivers driving Teslas with active autopilot (i.e. limited to great weather conditions on high quality roads) have fewer accidents than those without active autopilot (e.g. driving in poor weather conditions, or on bad roads). That's not much of an insight.
FSD refusing to engage in unsafe driving conditions does not compromise the system's safety. In fact, it's the safest possible option, and something I wish more humans (myself included) would do.
> As far as proving how unsafe it is, no one can do it unless Tesla is transparent with their data.
Right, so how are you confidently discounting Elon's claim without data?
> FSD refusing to engage in unsafe driving conditions does not compromise the system's safety.
That’s not the relevant part here. It’s that other humans do drive in unsafe conditions that contribute to overall human crash rates and those variables are not controlled for in the comparison.
You can’t just drive in areas your system deems safe, but then compare to humans who drive everywhere. You understand how that skews the comparison, right? It’s pretty basic statistics.
> Right, so how are you confidently discounting Elon's claim without data?
Elon’s claim isn’t supported by data either. That’s how I can discount it.
When you say “safer than human”, you better support it with data that holds up to scrutiny. The burden of proof is on you. Otherwise, you’re asking us to prove a negative.
You were asked for any evidence that it's unsafe, and you don't have it. The linked article is the only fatal accident you can even point to, and even that one is (1) only a suspected FSD accident based on previous driver statements and (2) really obviously a DUI anyway.
Look, these are the most popular vehicles on the road. Where are the wrecks? Where are the bodies? Surely if these were significant there would at least be a bunch of anecdata showing suspicious behavior. And there isn't. And you know that, which is why you're arguing so strongly here.
Just chill out. The system is safe. It is not perfect, but it is safe. And no amount of whatifery will make it otherwise.
No one can tell with a wreck if FSD was active or not. No shit, no one can point you to actual evidence because Tesla doesn’t release any data. You realize what a ridiculous, circular argument you’re making, right?
It’s telling that you want to rely on anecdata and news reports as proof rather than asking Tesla to be forthcoming.
To call a system safe and more specifically safer than human, you need data and you don’t have it. Plain and simple. The burden of proof is on you.
Is the burden of proof really on me? I mean, I look around and don't see any accidents. Seems safe. That's good enough. And it's good enough for most people. You're the one shouting like crazy on the internet about how everyone is wrong and making explicit general statements that the system is clearly unsafe. And that doesn't match my experience. And when asked for evidence of your own you admit it doesn't exist.
So... it's like that Money Printer Go Brrr... meme. Shouting loudly about something you believe deeply doesn't make it true. Cars aren't crashing. QED.
This seems out of hand. My perception is exactly the opposite: you're all over these threads claiming in decidedly certain terms that this system is unsafe. And all I'm saying is that it's clearly not, since at this scale we'd have if nothing else extensive anecdata showing AP/FSD accidents that simply don't seem to exist in the quantity needed to explain your certainty.
So, yeah. Occam tells me that these cars are safe. Which matches my 2.7 years of experience watching one of these things drive me around. So I'm comfortable with that, no matter how angry that makes you. I'm absolutely willing to change my mind with evidence, but not because you yelled at me on the internet.
I said they are not safer than humans like Tesla likes to claim. The methodology is extremely dubious and it’s very easy to debunk it for anyone with a basic understanding of statistics.
You claim it’s true because have anecdotes and personal experiences. You also say there are no crashes. But there are crashes. We just don’t know if FSD was engaged at the time because, again, Tesla doesn’t reveal it. Go through the NHTSA public database, there are dozens and dozens of Tesla ADAS crashes. Those are just the reported ones.
You are also conspicuously silent in this whole thread when data transparency comes up. Not once have you admitted Tesla should be more forthcoming about their crashes, and that in itself is very revealing.
You want to argue data or methodology? I’m here. But you’re being intellectually dishonest and resorting to repeating the same things over and over again. That ain’t gonna convince me.
And cut the shit about being angry or yelling at you. No one’s doing that. You’re clearly projecting.
If you don't like Tesla's methodology, what data do you need to determine how much more unsafe Teslas are compared to humans? You sound like you have the data:
> Go through the NHTSA public database, there are dozens and dozens of Tesla ADAS crashes. Those are just the reported ones.
Why hasn't anyone else, or you, directly published conflicting data to show that it's less safe? "debunking" some statistics might be correct but it's not convincing, and definitely won't result in any action you might want to see from regulatory bodies.
> what data do you need to determine how much more unsafe Teslas are compared to humans?
Tesla should start by first reporting disengagement data to CA DMV like every other self driving company. It shows FSD's rate of progress.
Then they should take all their crashes, normalize for different factors I mentioned earlier and then make a comparison. See how Waymo does it: https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperfor.... They have multiple white papers on their methodology. Go through it, if you're interested to see what apples-to-apples comparison looks like.
> Why hasn't anyone else, or you, directly published conflicting data to show that it's less safe?
Because Tesla redacts every single reported crash to point that it's useless. Is FSD enabled or Autopilot? Not reported. FSD version? Redacted. Injury? Unknown. Description? Redacted. Good luck trying to glean any information from it. This is by design to prevent independent analysis of their performance.
Be transparent like everyone else. You know it's fishy when they're actively trying to hide things.
This dude: "Neat, I'm going to use it!"
FSD, upon activation: "Full Self-Driving (Beta). Full Self-Driving is in early limited access Beta and must be used with additional caution. It may do the wrong thing at the worst time. Do not become complacent. ... Use FSD in limited Beta only if you will pay constant attention to the road, and be prepared to act immediately, specially around blind corners, crossing intersection, and in narrow driving situations. Do you want to enable FSD while it is in limited Beta?"
This dude: "Elon said it's safe, I'm going to drink and drive!"