> Nov 2022 coincides exactly with when it became apparent that inflation wasn't just "transient"
Have any sources on this I could check out? And yes, the pandemic was an absurd gold rush that was bound to crash at some point. It's just not clear to me that the cause was only about interest rates. Seems more like some confluence of chaotic factors.
Start with just a simple graph of the feds fund rate, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS. Rates were going up before then, but it's right about Sept/Oct when they reached a level that was a ~15 year high.
Rates weren't the only factor (and, of course, the increase in rates was caused by the inflation that was a result of both supply shocks and the government paying people a lot of money to do nothing), but I think they were the prime factor as to why it felt like things switched on a dime so quickly, because it was the forcing function that essentially caused all projects that could no longer compete with 5% t-bills to immediately get killed.
Have any sources on this I could check out? And yes, the pandemic was an absurd gold rush that was bound to crash at some point. It's just not clear to me that the cause was only about interest rates. Seems more like some confluence of chaotic factors.