> My point is that there is a cognitive bias towards overweighting the allocation of resources toward low-frequency events.

As I pointed out upthread, low frequency is not the same as low probability.

It might not make sense to upfront allocate resources for a low probability event, but it certainly could make sense for a high probability event even if it was low frequency ... like a spare bedroom, or a dining room, or a car with good range.

The probability of using those things are 1 i.e. guaranteed.

I think you’ll probably also find that the “spare” bedroom in many houses ends up getting used for other things—storage, a hobby room, (famously) perhaps an office or second office.

My spare bedroom has a futon couch but I actually use the space for various other things most of the time. Most people may have space that’s underutilized much of the time but that doesn’t mean it’s sealed off until they have an overnight guest or a large dinner part. Things aren’t that binary.

I'm surprised to see such a bad take on resource allocation on HN.

When provisioning servers, do you average your throughput and get enough capacity for that average?

Of course not, that would be assinine. You need to be able to serve 24 hours a day, even - especially - during your edge cases. Follow your advice and explain to the CEO that since Black Friday is a "low frequency event," it's fine that your site was down during that one day.

A better argument is that you should choose things, including houses and cars, based on edge cases since that is where meaningful differentiation occurs. If I take one road trip each quarter and my car is unable to handle it, then I bought the wrong car.

No, the correct analogy would be paying for, maintaining, and storing enough servers for Black Friday year round when the option existg to rent them on Black Friday for 1% the cost.

What exactly do you think AWS does mate, during black Friday?

Exactly my point

Unless your point is that someone should somehow rent an extra bedroom in their own house, it isn't. Such things aren't fungible.

Maybe not with the once per quarter road trip. That might not be a bad frequency for renting a nice road trip vehicle. But I generally agree with what you are saying.

You do not really know how low the frequency is for a particular person and how important those events are. I think you are making baseless guesses.

Some of these are family, friends I know very well, and even myself in the past. So I have some reliable information.

I honestly wonder how your friends and family feel about this attitude. Do you think they share it?