It is not possible to build a valuable business without achieving profitability. Over a long-enough time period, the value of a non-profitable business will revert to zero.
If a business is valuable, it is because the market (or investors) believe either
a.) It is going to make profits at some point in the future. b.) It is going to be an attractive acquisition for another company (who are presumably only going to buy it if they believe it will enhance their long term profitability).
Of course there is c.) , which is when investors buy into something because they believe someone else will come and buy it off them in the future for a greater amount of money. If we've reached this point, it is a sure sign of a bubble (cf Tulip fever in the Netherlands).
I agree with (A). In situation (B), the company being acquired was not profitable and may not have been on a path toward profitability, and yet was of value to another company, which seems to go against your thesis. And situation (C) is literally the prime motivation of every investment ever made for reasons other than charity.
And situation (C) is literally the prime motivation of every investment ever made for reasons other than charity.
It really isn't.
Some of us invest in things because we expect that in the long run the pay-off will be greater than the investment. In business terms, that means that the cost of buying into a company is less than the profit you are expecting to realise through dividends over the long run.
The idea (modern trend?) of having companies that pay no dividends, whose shares are valuable only because someone else might buy them for more money later, seems to me to be exactly what tomgallard said: a sure sign of a bubble.
I've often wondered why we allow companies, particularly publicly traded ones, to sit on an ever-growing war chest rather than paying out their profits to investors as dividends. I don't know enough grown-up economics to appreciate the realistic consequences of regulating that kind of behaviour, but the zero-dividend, war-chest approach seems to promote all the wrong behaviours in terms of markets and investors, assuming your goal is to have a healthy economy that promotes making useful products and providing useful services.
> I've often wondered why we allow companies, particularly publicly traded ones, to sit on an ever-growing war chest rather than paying out their profits to investors as dividends.
Because we believe that a large, successful company has investment options available to it that are not available to Joe Average, and can achieve a better return on that capital for its investors than they would be able to achieve themselves if it were returned immediately as a dividend. If you disagree with that analysis, you can easily vote with your investment dollars.
I appreciate that large companies do have other options today, for better or worse.
What I'm asking is whether we should allow them to exercise those options. Doing so, as you hinted in your own comment, means that large companies have to become skilled investors, and this will inevitably become a significant or even the dominant part of their existence instead of actually making useful things or providing useful services.
As we've observed all too recently, not all of those extra investment options are quite as effective as they were supposed to be. Moreover, any investment option that is legitimate could probably offered to (now richer) individual investors if large companies were not allowed to use it. So I'm not sure where the big downside is of restoring the natural links between companies that do socially useful things like make good products, companies that make profits, and companies that are attractive to outside investors when they need extra funding to grow faster.
Alternatively, if these companies are going to be allowed to invest their profits on behalf of their own shareholders, perhaps it's about time they were regulated as financial institutions. If nothing else, shareholders should be protected from senior management who are erroneously convinced that they can do a better job gambling^Winvesting their shareholders' profits than the shareholders themselves can do of choosing where to spend a legitimate return on their investment.
I was thinking more in terms of investments related to the company's business (e.g.: Apple pre-paying billions of dollars to lock up massive amounts of flash storage or to fund new factories for suppliers) that often have a much higher ROI than any investment you or I might reasonably make in any investment available to us.
Large companies carrying trading/gambling departments not related to the rest of their business is, as you say, probably not a good thing.
Sure, if the money is being spent on things like stock and operating expenses that are a normal part of the business, I have no problem with that. If it's being done on an industrial scale and there are economies that go with that, it makes perfect sense. I'm just not convinced that (for example) certain large tech companies -- particularly those that are in the software or services businesses rather than in manufacturing -- need reserves on the scale they are holding for the kinds of purposes we're talking about here, which leads me to ask why the rest isn't being paid out in dividends to shareholders.
It's not about whether we force companies to pay out all their profits as dividends. It's about whether a publicly-traded stock should carry any dividend, or no dividend.
If it's no dividend, then the stock is only valuable as a flip-asset. If it's got any dividend at all, then the stock has real value as an income stream.
It is not possible to build a valuable business without achieving profitability. Over a long-enough time period, the value of a non-profitable business will revert to zero.
If a business is valuable, it is because the market (or investors) believe either
a.) It is going to make profits at some point in the future. b.) It is going to be an attractive acquisition for another company (who are presumably only going to buy it if they believe it will enhance their long term profitability).
Of course there is c.) , which is when investors buy into something because they believe someone else will come and buy it off them in the future for a greater amount of money. If we've reached this point, it is a sure sign of a bubble (cf Tulip fever in the Netherlands).