This article conflates two issues: the secular trend that is "software eating the world" and the local trend which is a valuation spike.
ยปThe truth is that the technology sector as a whole over any length of time is a positive-sum game
Actually, no - a bubble means people aren't investing on fundamentals but on momentum; the expected value of the investment is negative. If we were in a bubble (as in bubbles past) we wouldn't be in a positive sum game. Saying that it would be a net positive game over "any period of time" is economically and empirically ridiculous.
I happen to believe that we are not in a bubble. But if we were it would matter - it would mean that when the bubble pops opportunities in the field would decrease in frequency and magnitude. Since career scars early on have more persistent effects than displacements later in life it follows that an aspiring tech star cannot ignore the market realities of what they're going into.
We are mortal, we can't just ride the secular trend. The local time scale matters, too.
ยปThe truth is that the technology sector as a whole over any length of time is a positive-sum game
Actually, no - a bubble means people aren't investing on fundamentals but on momentum; the expected value of the investment is negative. If we were in a bubble (as in bubbles past) we wouldn't be in a positive sum game. Saying that it would be a net positive game over "any period of time" is economically and empirically ridiculous.
I happen to believe that we are not in a bubble. But if we were it would matter - it would mean that when the bubble pops opportunities in the field would decrease in frequency and magnitude. Since career scars early on have more persistent effects than displacements later in life it follows that an aspiring tech star cannot ignore the market realities of what they're going into.
We are mortal, we can't just ride the secular trend. The local time scale matters, too.