depends on the commenter's time line. Our base expectation for prices is probably something like a trailing average over time (for me it feels like the 20 year trailing average xD )
For some people who have financial stress their basket of goods is quite different than the CPI though. Eg if you're struggling to buy groceries, housing, etc they've gone up closer to 80% in the time span, that's going to feel pretty close to 100% in a fuzzy system like our minds (as opposed to statistics).
When someone used to get a burrito for $5 and it's now $9 that rounds to "double" in casual, non-pedantic, conversation.
I think I basically disagree with the notion that the sum of 20 years of inflation is driving current "bad vibes." I think it's mostly just that people experienced 10-15 years of near-zero inflation (for a significant fraction of people, this was their entire adult life) and then suddenly experienced 5-10% inflation for a year or two. It's the sudden shift from mostly stable prices that is bad for vibes (IMO). The past 20 years as a sliding window is actually a lower inflation period than most historical 20-year periods.
i think the real issue is inter-item inflation variability and its effect on perception and lifestyle.
Take beef. Its a 5x over last 20 years [1], while corn and chicken are about 2x, yet the price of a typical computer has
fallen year over year, which doesn't even take into account that the phone in my pocket probably out computes supercomputers two decades ago.
Interesting confounding factor. That says average price of ground beef without specifying the %. As a kid I do not recall often seeing 95%+ lean ground beef, whereas today that's essentially all I buy. The price span can be easily be double... Doesnt explain the full 5x but interesting to wonder if the data is cognizant/adjusted of that detail?
Are wages up 64% in 20 years? Have common investment vehicles increased 64% yields in 20 years? What about fuel? Have social security payouts increased 64% in 20 years?
> common investment vehicles increased 64% yields in 20 years
This one is not very relevant because so few people hold these instruments (both in the sense of absolutely owning any, and in a weighted sense of what % of the total rise do they get to share in)
Some of my expenses only rose 5-7%, mostly utilities. Most of my expenses cost ~20% more, compared to last Dec. So not doubled, true.
Going back three years, we start seeing some doubled expenses. Rent and insurance are two. Household survival went from needing 2 typical incomes to 4.
