Of course HBO management are not idiots. They are actually doing the best to increase profit of the company (in short term).
However, I think the theme here is that cable subscription model is getting disrupted: more and more people will not have cable and will relay on other ways to get viewing content. It might be too late for them to transition to brave new world if they don't start now.
How do you imagine HBO getting screwed in the long run? As far as I can see, there will be distributors in any brave new world. Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Hulu are going that way. As long as HBO keeps making quality content, distributors will be lining up to bid on it.
You are 100% right: I'm just saying their their business and distribution model is based on cable subscription. And that we don't know whether their math (and content they produce) will work if they switch to different distribution model.
My assumption is that with changing distribution model they also need to change what kind of content they are producing.
Anyway, I'm concern that death of cable will also mean death of HBO and their great content: as revenue from cable subscription start drying down, the revenue from other distribution channels will be too weak to replace it and then the death spiral starts....
I agree. However, they may be giving some other content-producing company a chance to grow, or pushing other companies (e.g., Netflix) towards producing content of their own.
What I wonder about is what is happening to the margins of content-production. HBO has been living on fat margins, and I can see why they wouldn't want to give that up. But the increasing numbers of distribution channels seem likely to put pressure on those margins -- more content producers have a chance to get in the game.
However, I think the theme here is that cable subscription model is getting disrupted: more and more people will not have cable and will relay on other ways to get viewing content. It might be too late for them to transition to brave new world if they don't start now.