The bottleneck is probably the availability of lithography machines that can make ubiquitous chips for processing that much data quickly enough without heating or drawing electricity too much.
Not too far in the future every device will have some 5nm or better tech LLM chip inside and devices understanding natural language will be the norm.
By dumb machines, people will mean machines that have to be programmed by people using ancient techniques where everything the machine is supposed to do is written step by step in a low level computer language like JavaScript.
Nerds will be making demos of doing something incredibly fast by directly writing the algorithms by hand, and will be annoyed by the fact that something that can be done in 20 lines of code on few hundred MB of RAM in NodeJS now requires a terabyte of RAM.
Dumb phone will be something like iPhone 15 pro or Pixel 8 Pro where you have separate apps for each thing you do and you can't simply ask the device to do it for you.
I really don’t buy that last paragraph. It’s the idea the AI Pin founders keep saying - you don’t want apps, the device chooses it for you, etc. In a world where you have economical choice, that’s quite hard to imagine: would there be no competition? What good is it for you if you can’t even choose what music app you want? Without _something_ like an app, how do you even know what you can interact with?
> Without _something_ like an app, how do you even know what you can interact with?
You just tell what you need or want and the AI will suggest you options.
>What good is it for you if you can’t even choose what music app you want?
You don't want a music app, you want to listen to music. The AI will simply play it to you and any additional features that you might like will be available. Feel like doing karaoke? Just tell to the AI. Want more songs like this? Tell it to the AI. Not sure what you want? Tell the AI that you are not sure and ask for suggestions, maybe vaguely describe how you feel. You get the idea.
> would there be no competition? There would, but not in the current sense.
Maybe there would be experience designers and knowledge brokers. The AI might tell you that you will need a weather info subscription if you need something specific that is not provided by your current subscriptions. Maybe you want some specific recipe from a home lighting style from a designer? The AI can help you purchase and apply that. Maybe you want to try dating? It wouldn't be an app but a subscription you can join and the AI will handle the UX.
However, I think there will be games because games are apps whose value comes from interaction with the app itself.
I absolutely 100% want youtube music because it has the music I want and I have my playlists there. That entire argument of “you don’t want X” is misguided.
Maybe for someone whose first computer ever is that AI panopticon, then sure. But will all music be free? What about netflix? Will it also be free? What happens to competition? Or choice of brands?
These are already under threat, people are editing images using text for a year now - no tools needed, you can describe what you want or tap on an area of the image and describe what changes you want. These days they started doing videos too.
They’re still apps, and nobody that does anything minimally professional uses “no tools” (in fact it’s quite the opposite, AI added a mindnumbing number of tools to the toolset). I really don’t see how these will just “disappear” and become some amorphous “talk to the computer” interface
It's not on professional level yet, but it was barely O.K. a few months ago. It's moving very fast.
The gist is, if something is learnable by practice the AI can do it because by training these machines we actually teach them patterns and methods. Any "blue collar" job like editing images is going away.
Talking is waaaaay more time consuming than tapping or typing, having to memorize what I’m able to do on my device instead of just taking a glance at its screen is a lot of cognitive overload, not having any shared UI with others is a recipe for eternal confusion…
I really don’t see any clear advantages of having a one-fits all shapeless interface that’s driven by prompts (verbal or not). Doesn’t feel like a UX that makes sense to me, and I haven’t heard a case where it does yet tbh (I do think the “personal assistant” makes sense, and might replace some stuff, but don’t see how it’d become the next interface for everything)
There's no reason why AI app wouldn't be able to interact with you through the most suitable UI.
For example, when playing music can show you the basic buttons but also let you type or speak for more advanced stuff like "let's do karaoke" or "why don't we go through move soundtracks by showing me iconic scenes from each movie while playing the songs".
Not too far in the future every device will have some 5nm or better tech LLM chip inside and devices understanding natural language will be the norm.
By dumb machines, people will mean machines that have to be programmed by people using ancient techniques where everything the machine is supposed to do is written step by step in a low level computer language like JavaScript.
Nerds will be making demos of doing something incredibly fast by directly writing the algorithms by hand, and will be annoyed by the fact that something that can be done in 20 lines of code on few hundred MB of RAM in NodeJS now requires a terabyte of RAM.
Dumb phone will be something like iPhone 15 pro or Pixel 8 Pro where you have separate apps for each thing you do and you can't simply ask the device to do it for you.