Exactly. All these numbers are based on the current/past market and a very broken assumption that LCOE of competing technology (renewables + storage) won't continue to drop further. Which of course they are projected to do; and not just a little. And of course that already actually happened and was widely predicted to happen years ago.
Also the numbers of these plants would need to be massively higher to be significant. 40-50 plants is tiny a feasibility study. That study has now been cancelled for cost reasons.
You'd need many thousands to make these start contributing significant percentages of market share to overall energy production. Tens of thousands really. Which of course at a high LCOE is never going to be competitive. Basically the "value" proposition to investors is to be selling these things at a massive loss using government subsidies to make that tolerable for whomever is buying. This has to be sustained until the learning effects drive the LCOE low enough that making them actually stands a chance of turning a profit. And of course there are no guarantees that the LCOE will actually ever catch up with renewables. Small chance of success & high chance of failure that requires decades of sustained massive investments and massive subsidies. All with a high degree of uncertainty.
That's not a great investor pitch of course. Which is why they are bailing. There seem to be a few other projects still going. But they'll have to face the same realities eventually.
Also the numbers of these plants would need to be massively higher to be significant. 40-50 plants is tiny a feasibility study. That study has now been cancelled for cost reasons.
You'd need many thousands to make these start contributing significant percentages of market share to overall energy production. Tens of thousands really. Which of course at a high LCOE is never going to be competitive. Basically the "value" proposition to investors is to be selling these things at a massive loss using government subsidies to make that tolerable for whomever is buying. This has to be sustained until the learning effects drive the LCOE low enough that making them actually stands a chance of turning a profit. And of course there are no guarantees that the LCOE will actually ever catch up with renewables. Small chance of success & high chance of failure that requires decades of sustained massive investments and massive subsidies. All with a high degree of uncertainty.
That's not a great investor pitch of course. Which is why they are bailing. There seem to be a few other projects still going. But they'll have to face the same realities eventually.