How do you compare the results? Most of the time you can’t know the actual probability of events being predicted even after they happen, and so it’s apples and oranges.
If you predict that it will rain on Friday, and I predict an alien invasion before Christmas, and both actually happen… Does that mean I was smarter because my event was vastly more unlikely? How would you score these two successful predictions and what possible value could those scores have? Where was intelligence applied here?
It would atleast show both of you are good in your respective fields. Also the predictions could be mild in nature since everything is based on hunch, we want the guy who gets the best hunches.
If you predict that it will rain on Friday, and I predict an alien invasion before Christmas, and both actually happen… Does that mean I was smarter because my event was vastly more unlikely? How would you score these two successful predictions and what possible value could those scores have? Where was intelligence applied here?