Yep! I completely agree. Making good choices is an (often) necessary but not sufficient condition for success. The rules of the universe are fuzzy and inexact!
But if you spend a lot of time arguing that fate/bias determines a person's life, you are going to be less likely to invest the effort in making those good choices. Optimism and pessimism can infect a culture or an age. Lots more things are possible in ages of cultural optimism, it's self-reinforcing! We're definitely entering an age of pessimism.
Lots of bad things can happen due to people being overly optimistic. In fact a lot of business blunders have been because people were all smiles while the ship sank. How about the housing crisis? "House prices will always go up!", "I will always make enough to pay off the mortgage I took out", "These securities will make your retirement portfolio/investment firm a lot of money!". You could also point to almost any financial scandal out there and find a bunch of overly optimistic sheep burying their head in the sand or being lead to slaughter. Those sheep who went astray were chastised or booted out.
Pessimism can breed anger and resentment which can eventually lead to changes/revolution. This can be a good or bad thing.
It's a balancing act really, but no one should chuck reality out the window so they can feel overly optimistic or overly pessimistic. That can be a struggle sometimes, depending on your life experiences, the current cultural climate and how much control you feel over your future.
But if you spend a lot of time arguing that fate/bias determines a person's life, you are going to be less likely to invest the effort in making those good choices. Optimism and pessimism can infect a culture or an age. Lots more things are possible in ages of cultural optimism, it's self-reinforcing! We're definitely entering an age of pessimism.