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I find these results extremely promising. If I understand the numbers correctly, about 450,000 children die of malaria alone every year. That means a 13% reduction in deaths would save over 50,000 children per year. This is a lower bound estimate as well, as there are other sources of child mortality and the 13% figure is for all deaths.

I think some of the other commenters were expecting higher numbers. It has been very difficult to produce a malaria vaccine in the past, and we already knew this particular one was not very effective. If you had this as a prior, you should be able to see this as the breakthrough it ultimately is.




13% is the reduction in all-cause mortality — ie, if every death this prevented was a death from malaria, this reduced deaths from malaria by over 99%.


This would mean that a lot of malaria related deaths are unaccounted for or that the vaccine is helping in another way.


One hypothesis is that some people who caught malaria but did not die from malaria, did die more frequently to another cause where having had malaria was a contributing factor to that death.




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