The big thing your entire calculation leaves out is the time it takes to do this transaction every couple of years, because there is no way a dealership is going to give you the money you are looking for...
I'd rather do something else with my time to be honest.
cars lose the most value in the first 3 years. So in those 3 years, you'll lose 50% of the car's value. Since leasing is basically just covering the cost of depreciation...you end up on the hook for the biggest loss in the car's life.
when you buy used and sell in the next 2 years, you only lose ~20%.
+ with leasing you are limited to 10-12K miles per year.
remember, for this thing we are talking about getting the best bang for your buck, while still getting something decent.
i.e. I'm leasing a CRV for my mom(don't want her to deal with repairs etc). It costs me $262/mo...so over 3 years it will cost me $9,432.
At a 20% loss...that same $9,432 loss...would have been the same as if I've gotten a used $47,160 3 year old car, then sold it 2 years later at a 20% loss.
A $47,160 3 year old used car would have been a $70-90K new car.
Some alternatives(used eBay with the buy it now and low miles):
Original MSRP is inside the ()...but with most of these cars you can add another 10-20% for options.
2009 BMW M5($83,000)
2009 Audi S5($60,000)
2009 MB CLS550($71,000)
2008 MB SL550($105,000)
2008 MB CLS65 AMG($94,900)
2008 Audi RS4($70,000)
2008 Porsche 911($82,000)
Now which would you rather drive...a CRV...or any of those.
Yes your time is important, and you have to add that into the calculation.
The big thing your entire calculation leaves out is the time it takes to do this transaction every couple of years, because there is no way a dealership is going to give you the money you are looking for...
I'd rather do something else with my time to be honest.