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You do realize that those clients represent ~89% of all web usage, right?



That may well be true right now but of course we are in a time of transition right now and Adobe seems to be burning rather too many bridges.

If adobe wanted their runtime to survive (I'm not sure they do) they would be showing commitment to supporting their runtime in as many places as possible.

Right now the only place it really runs well is on Windows which means they are quite firmly shackled to Microsoft and it's not even clear that MS see flash as part of their vision for their products.


I think it's pretty clear MS does not, since Flash doesn't work on IE 10 on Windows 8 using the default UI (Metro).

My guess is that Adobe has given up on the runtime and is cutting costs while investing in the authoring tools (which is where they make their money anyway) for HTML5.


...~89% of all web usage NOW (I'm not sure about the number though, but it seems legit and I take your word for it).

What about 2 years from now?


Really, all smartphones, all tablets, all Linux is only 11%? I'm very doubtful and won't believe it without citation.



That does seem surprisingly low, but let's assume it is that correct.

According to stat counter , mobile usage in Jan 2010 was 1.56%, by Dec 2010 it was 4.1%. By Feb 2012 8.53%.

That's an astonishing growth to have roughly doubled in a year. Although the growth proportionally is less than in 2010 which might suggest that there is some slow down.

Big companies like adobe need to plan for the long term, even if "mobile" peaks at 30% + all the people running Windows 8 using Metro + all the Linux users.

That's certainly a big enough base of non-flashers for any web developer to seriously think twice about using it for anything.


"Web usage", as a percentage, usually means "site visits", not "web users" or "devices".

Most people do not own tablets, outside of pretty narrow demographics. Most people who have a smartphone do way less browsing on it, by number of site visits, than they do on their computer.




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