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Given that only the living qualify for a Nobel prize,

Given that leaks demonstrably occur,

Given human nature,

Given at most 3 can share a Nobel Prize,

It is not a question of "if" but "when" eventually a fourth wheel scientist risks being assassinated if consideration of topics for a prize leaks substantially beforehand. Perpetrators could include candidates, but also nationalists (for prestige) of any rank (civilians, national security employees, ...).

Perhaps a topic for a film school student? A bizarre cross between "Don't look up" and the French film "Le couperet", with elements of film noir.

To make it extra bizarre, have the invention be resurrection technology.

Defensive measures the Academy could take could include last minute randomized selection of the topic / breakthrough, probability weighted by dubious nature of death of deceased candidates. Although this risks an escalation where a candidate has larger numbers of random candidates for other discoveries or breakthroughs assassinated...



> Given at most 3 can share a Nobel Prize,

Proposed title of your spy thriller novel: The Four Body Problem.


The four body problem? That's quite the mexican standoff gone wrong, if all four of them manage to kill eachother.


It was intended as a pun of "The Three Body Problem" novel, I would guess.


Four being the number of death and all...




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