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Decision making: going with your guts?
2 points by SMAAART on Sept 20, 2023 | hide | past | favorite | 3 comments
I am old(er) but I am not done yet.

I have had a somewhat successful career as both an executive and entrepreneur, always making pragmatic decisions based on data, logic, and reasoning. Growing up poor had something to do with that.

As an executive in tech startups I have often witnessed entrepreneurs making what seemed like emotional decisions, good or bad, just because they felt that way, without any regards to data, or factual evidences. And I am taking about hiring, firing, layoffs, M&A, financing, re-financing, breaking leases, moving locations, closing down branches...

I do read a lot of business and personal development books, and recently I am reading, again, "Start with Why" by Simon Sinek.

Generally speaking I like the book, but there's an entire chapter where Simon praises making decision by listening to one's gut feelings; especially within the context of being an entrepreneur.

I am aware of Malcolm Gladwell's book "Blink". I love that book, and the way I interpreted it is that people who have both deep expertise and vast experience in a field, can often, but not always, sense end results with incomplete data. I get that, I have witnessed and experienced that. But to me it's not gut feelings, it's expertise.

I am a good executive but a terrible entrepreneur. I am trying to change that.

Should I go more with my gut feelings AND at the same time take more actions/risks? Without pondering too much about data, and analysis and trying to take calculating risks?

HN: do you have any insightful comments or resources for me?

Thanks in advance.




The thing is you are going to make mistakes when you are reasoning with uncertainty, you can learn to make better mistakes but you're always going to be taking risks.

Maybe you should take up Poker as a hobby.


> The thing is you are going to make mistakes when you are reasoning with uncertainty, you can learn to make better mistakes but you're always going to be taking risks.

My take has always been that calculated risk is no risk at all, hence my love affair with data. But now I am starting to question the validity of the premises.

> Maybe you should take up Poker as a hobby.

I have actually seriously thought about it. I know little poker, and it is a interesting proxy for life/business decision making process; with possibly some game theory in it too.


Calculated risk is plenty of risk.

Starting a startup is like a hand of poker. That is, there is some chance that you might work on it for six months and decide it is not worth it, some possibility you will drop out at some other point, some possibility that you get acqui-hired, and a very small chance you hit it big.

You shouldn't do it if one of the outcomes is you wind up on the street, but you might very well have it fail, reel a bit, and then get a job for somebody else.




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