I can't understand this impulse. It seems blindingly clear to me that the international influence of China is rising and will continue to rise, and the need for Mandarin-English bilingual work will continue to skyrocket. If you do not believe that China is going to be an even more massive world power in the coming decades, then I guess I understand the drop in interest. I just cannot fathom how that could happen, though.
The article puts some import on "soft power"... but is the economic rise of China really going to be soft power? The manufacturing capacity in China is amazing. We're not talking about exporting cultural goods. It's real goods and real power.
The money quote for me:
> The market may have also got more competitive. Bilingual Chinese graduates now fill many of the jobs that require Mandarin. In terms of language skills, they are often more qualified than their Western counterparts. All Chinese children start learning English by age eight, some even earlier. University-entrance exams in China require a high level of proficiency.
So basically, the US students are being out-competed by the Chinese students. Learning Mandarin is not incentivized in the US.
I do not look forward to a time when all the important jobs require Mandarin proficiency, and none of the US graduates have the skills to occupy those positions.
I look forward to deeper comments or at least substantiated refutations.
> I can't understand this impulse. It seems blindingly clear to me that the international influence of China is rising and will continue to rise, and the need for Mandarin-English bilingual work will continue to skyrocket. If you do not believe that China is going to be an even more massive world power in the coming decades, then I guess I understand the drop in interest.
China is having less and less influence globally. Look at the decoupling. It is having more influence regionally. This is a global trend by the way - a weaker global order and a rise of regional poles of power. Regardless of this, English is the de-facto international language and China is hostile to foreign business. It's really only useful if you decide to move to China.
And even if this is not convincing, the trajectory of China is questionable at this point between allying with Russia, a complete disdain for democratic values with 0 constitutional protections (free speech, privacy, etc.), abysmal demographics, and shakey economics. There will be no Chinese global order.
this, from tfa, seems like perfectly adequate reasoning to me:
8<--------------------------------------------
Students in the West may have also soured on the idea of doing business with China. Mandarin teachers point to the Beijing Olympics in 2008 as a seminal moment, when excitement for learning the language took off. Since then, though, China has grown more oppressive under Xi Jinping. Its human-rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong have been widely reported. In most rich countries negative views of China are at or near all-time highs.
8<--------------------------------------------
i know that if i were a student in an american university right now, the thought of doing business in or with china would not cross my mind - kind of similar to how, when i was growing up in the 80s, there was very good money indians could make working in saudi arabia, but neither me nor any of my friends would have been remotely interested in going there.
I'd hire a Chinese student who graduates from a US university. Their understanding of Chinese & American culture/language would be far better than an American who studies Mandarin for a few years.
China has shown how hostile and vicious it can be, and damaged its reputations as a safe business environment.
No one can sleep well at night, knowing that they're completely reliant on a foreign
country with such aggressive and hostile policy. Which is why many countries all over the world are starting programs to diversify and promote local manufacturing to cut back on reliance on China, one step at a time.
So, don't worry about future jobs, for me, I'm betting it's downhill from here for China. They played their card too early.
It's not China vs US. It's China vs the whole world, china has literally no friends that share its interests because it's so self-centered and intolerable, not even many of it's own oppressed people.
In short, china reputation as a safe business environment/partner is already damaged, and if it continues with the same policy and overplay its hand, then in the next two decades its role will diminish and it'll be isolated, even if it was still super power by then.
Their population is set to drop about 500,000,000 by 2100, and they have scared away investors with the imprisonments. Also, destroying your own tech sector in the name of ideology means they aren’t super interested in the people.
I think the general feeling is that even if China continues to rise, “we” don’t really want anything to do with them. Alternatives will be found and China will at the very least be a soft enemy that espouses something we don’t want to be, very much like the Soviet Union and the Cold War.
The article puts some import on "soft power"... but is the economic rise of China really going to be soft power? The manufacturing capacity in China is amazing. We're not talking about exporting cultural goods. It's real goods and real power.
The money quote for me:
> The market may have also got more competitive. Bilingual Chinese graduates now fill many of the jobs that require Mandarin. In terms of language skills, they are often more qualified than their Western counterparts. All Chinese children start learning English by age eight, some even earlier. University-entrance exams in China require a high level of proficiency.
So basically, the US students are being out-competed by the Chinese students. Learning Mandarin is not incentivized in the US.
I do not look forward to a time when all the important jobs require Mandarin proficiency, and none of the US graduates have the skills to occupy those positions.
I look forward to deeper comments or at least substantiated refutations.