I wonder why people are so focused om probability distributions that look like one peak sided by two tails.
There's another way to look at it.
For project estimations I've made people give up on the whole fiction of estimates by simply confronting them with the fact that maybe it's going to be very easy (eg, there's an API for it already, or there's a nice library), or maybe it'll be quite hard (eg, it may require writing a sqlite extension, or using multipath TCP, or something else you haven't done before).
That's a probability cost landscape with two peaks! And the number you get by interpolating between the peaks will be the most wrong.
Makes some people's heads explode, because they want to slot a single number into a field, and you're just not giving it.
Some others will see the light and leave you to your explorations, after which you'll sync with them on your findings and where to go from there.
There's another way to look at it.
For project estimations I've made people give up on the whole fiction of estimates by simply confronting them with the fact that maybe it's going to be very easy (eg, there's an API for it already, or there's a nice library), or maybe it'll be quite hard (eg, it may require writing a sqlite extension, or using multipath TCP, or something else you haven't done before).
That's a probability cost landscape with two peaks! And the number you get by interpolating between the peaks will be the most wrong.
Makes some people's heads explode, because they want to slot a single number into a field, and you're just not giving it.
Some others will see the light and leave you to your explorations, after which you'll sync with them on your findings and where to go from there.