I write code for 15 years and I still have no idea how to do any estimations. All my estimations are off by 2-200 times. Basically they’re useless. I write code until I’m happy with it. Sometimes I need to rewrite code 5 times before I’m satisfied. Sometimes I have extremely bad mood and can’t do anything creative at all, so even expecting me to work a hour tomorrow is not reliable. Or may be I’ll be in perfect mood and conditions and will spend weekends writing perfect code for 30 hours.
I envy people who can work on schedule. I’m so terrible on that.
> All my estimations are off by 2-200 times. Basically they’re useless.
I know, hyperboles and all, but if your initial estimate for a task is 1 week but you end up requiring 4 years to deliver it then something went terribly wrong, and asking your for estimates ain't it.
Even story points scope tasks with granularities that range different orders of magnitude for this reason. One day, one week, epic/spike. It's ok if one day means 4 days, or one week means two. If one day turns to 3 years then the developer was completely clueless and unfit to continue working on the project.
In one of the Agile training courses I took we were taught the concept of "horizon of predictability". The base one is two weeks.
Within two weeks you more or less can estimate accurately. Beyond the two weeks, the estimates become pretty much useless. "Three months" is not an estimate. It just can't be one in good faith.
I love those training courses and their narrow view of the world. I can be accurate with 3-month and 6-month projects.
This is because long-term projects give me the space to allocate specific kinds of mental energy and attention efficiently and have steady progress.
Short-term projects, I never know if I have the right kind of energy or attention to move forward. I often end up blocked by my brain, making my two week estimates unreliable.
I envy people who can work on schedule. I’m so terrible on that.