I also believe there will be another drop when the apps actually are shut down. Now people are loggin in to get the last details without much hassle. I did this myself, it’s muscle memory to open Apollo and browse it, even with some subreddits closed. When the app are down… there will be the another spike, which Reddit has to overcome. At that moment I will most probably also shut down.
Reddit already knows what proportion of users are in third party apps. It's somewhere in the neighbourhood of 5%. The only open question is what proportion of third party app users will come back using the website or official app. My bet is at least half, probably more.
