> El Niño is a climate pattern that naturally occurs every two to seven years when ocean surface temperatures warm in the eastern Pacific.
From the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)[2]:
> El Niño can affect our weather significantly. The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.
> El Niño also has a strong effect on marine life off the Pacific coast. During normal conditions, upwelling brings water from the depths to the surface; this water is cold and nutrient rich. During El Niño, upwelling weakens or stops altogether. Without the nutrients from the deep, there are fewer phytoplankton off the coast. This affects fish that eat phytoplankton and, in turn, affects everything that eats fish. The warmer waters can also bring tropical species, like yellowtail and albacore tuna, into areas that are normally too cold.
As far as the Continental United States is concerned, this means the Northern half of the country will be warmer than usual, the Southern half of the country will be wetter than usual, and the Northeast in particular will be drier than usual.
You failed to add the two most important things on the subject about its impact worldwide
1) Certain regions, particularly those riding the equatorial line that also have wet seasons will experience (rather, are experiencing right now) extreme wet seasons with heavy flooding , for example in south america, such as Peru, Brazil and COlombia. The wet season causes an extreme cascading effect in those societies by the spike in cases of water-related (mosquito larvae) disease like dengue, cholera and malaria.
2) The same countries will experience drought in the normally quieter, "winter" season. That wrecks agricultural yield. Watch the price of bananas and similar water-intensive perennials , at your local supermarket early next year. For countries near major river flows (amazon in particular) that are not diversified in power sources and heavily dependant in hydro for power , they can get really in trouble and experience brownouts further damaging their GDP. This is rarer since most countries learn their lesson after the 1-brownout in a decade..but you never know.
The baseline is going up, and people are already dying due to weather extremes. A cyclic pattern that increases extremes is a legitimate cause for concern in each year it occurs.
While I am not saying to ignore climate change, I do believe that the recent public narrative of a looming „climate catastrophe“ is certainly just to scare people into accepting all kinds of policy changes (and some of them with questionable usefulness).
As the figure tries to convey laws of nature do not matter if human action is able to offset their effects. In the last 100 years climate related deaths plummeted by 10x despite the warming trend we now know about.
And it’s not that surprising, if you take a step back shortly: It’s quintessentially human to withstand natural forces. That behavior have brought humans ever more far away from doom. Human beings have witnessed sea levels 130 meters lower 21000 years ago and have crossed the Bering street to populate North America. So climatic changes have basically been a catalyst to human development and they will remain so for the foreseeable future. Human made climate change is not great but it will certainly not bring doom over our civilization and certainly not over our planet (that has seen much worse if you look back farther into the past).
All this doom and gloom talk will only incite the worst in us.
What causes El Niño to happen every few years? What mechanism drives the phenomenon? I was thinking maybe sun spots, but sun spots have 11 year cycles on average, so I don't think it's the cause. Why doesn't El Niño happen every year, like hurricanes?
"El Niño and La Niña reflect the two end points of an oscillation in the Pacific Ocean. The cycle is not fully understood, but the times series illustrates that the cycle swings back and forth every 3-7 years. Often, El Niño is followed immediately by La Niña, as if the warm water is sloshing back and forth across the Pacific. The development of El Niño events is linked to the trade winds. El Niño occurs when the trade winds are weaker than normal, and La Niña occurs when they are stronger than normal. Both cycles typically peak in December.
El Niño and La Niña aren’t the only cycles evident in this image series. The Pacific Ocean is moody: It turns slightly hot or slightly cold every couple of years. This bi-annual pattern isn’t the distinctive, well-defined stripe of warm ocean waters near the equator typical of El Niño, but rather, a general warming of the ocean.
On top of the two-year warm/cold cycle and the El Niño/La Niña pattern is a broader decadal cycle in which the Pacific has a warm and a cool phase. In the 1990s, the Pacific was in a warm phase. The strong El Niño of 1997 marked the end of the warm phase."
Coriolis. There are timescales set up by two big mechanisms: one is westward-propagating oceanic Rossby [0] waves just to the north and south of the equator and the other is eastward-propagating Kelvin [1] waves along the equator which hit the Peruvian coast, split in two and flow north and south bouncing along the coast. Sloshing back and forth.
There’s nothing we could do to this planet (including climate change, ocean acidification , or even “launch all the nukes”) that would make it less hospitable to humanity than the moon/mars.
> El Niño is a climate pattern that naturally occurs every two to seven years when ocean surface temperatures warm in the eastern Pacific.
From the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)[2]:
> El Niño can affect our weather significantly. The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.
> El Niño also has a strong effect on marine life off the Pacific coast. During normal conditions, upwelling brings water from the depths to the surface; this water is cold and nutrient rich. During El Niño, upwelling weakens or stops altogether. Without the nutrients from the deep, there are fewer phytoplankton off the coast. This affects fish that eat phytoplankton and, in turn, affects everything that eats fish. The warmer waters can also bring tropical species, like yellowtail and albacore tuna, into areas that are normally too cold.
As far as the Continental United States is concerned, this means the Northern half of the country will be warmer than usual, the Southern half of the country will be wetter than usual, and the Northeast in particular will be drier than usual.
[1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/el-nino-returns-2023/
[2]https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html