Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

This is not how recessions work.



Emotional investors moving hundreds of billions of dollars create self-fulfilling prophecies. It absolutely is how recessions work.

"I'm so pissy because the US Fed isn't giving away free money anymore. I'm moving to cash and will shower money on any company that does layoffs."

Yeah, it works.


US recessions and bear markets happen most of the time because of mass psychosis, not because of some underlying cause. There can be a trigger, yes, but it's generally not that big of a deal. The government also plays a role in triggering these recessions, so that they can pop the bubbles before it's too late.

Yes, there can be recessions causes by world wars, worldwide droughts, pandemics and other cataclysmic events, but usually it's not the case for US.


Enough people losing their jobs, cutting spending habits, will create that mass psychosis.

Tech is a small part of the economy, but cities like Seattle that have built restaurants and services catering to the tech crowd will see further fallout. There was this idea that Seattle would be this next big metropolitan area, but tech implants have found it’s not for them after a few years


The idea that emotional investors moving large amounts of money can single-handedly cause recessions is naive, even if it is comforting. The world has been using ZIRP for a long time. This policy has led to overinflated stock prices and a significant number of worthless loans held by regional banks, now collapsing at a rate similar to the 2008 crisis. When equity assets lose value, companies buoyed by those previous values have to reduce their spending because they would not be able to raise enough money by selling those assets, and they'd otherwise end up underwater or going bankrupt.


Of course not. They’re caused by the fed.


Recessions and collapses happened long before the Fed ever existed, e.g. Tulips


I think the Tulip Mania, if that's what you're referring to, was a speculation bubble, whereas a recession is widespread by definition.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: