> That said, I don't believe that statistically significant results can be found that will overturn my own instincts and judgement on any specific project to which I am dedicated. The reason for this is threefold: 1) the universe of software and goals we pursue with is astronomically large 2) competence in software engineering depends on the combination of personal aptitudes and mindsets combined with years of practice and 3) measuring outcomes in software engineering across diverse projects is all but impossible. In other words, you can't equate tools, you can't equate projects, and most of all you can't equate people.
This was pretty much the word-by-word argument against using statistical approaches to price insurance of shipments over the sea back in the 1700s. Yet we all know how insurance premiums are calculates today, and there's a reason for it.
Word-for-word? Really? Sorry, I just don't understand your point.
Are you saying merchants in the 1700s didn't believe insurance outcomes were quantifiable? Or are you saying that software engineering output is quantifiable? If the latter, maybe you might shed some light on how you think that would work, I'm happy to be proven wrong.
This was pretty much the word-by-word argument against using statistical approaches to price insurance of shipments over the sea back in the 1700s. Yet we all know how insurance premiums are calculates today, and there's a reason for it.