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Wind alone produces ~20% of the recent years electricity in Germany.

Nuclear produced only half of that in recent years.

The whole renewable energy production covers ~40% of all the energy produced. Despite 16 years of almost full stop of expansion.

https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Branchen-Unternehmen/Energ...




Soon you're going to run out of land for your renewables. Plus renewables are extremely intermittent power sources. Nuclear solves both the land-use and consistency problems.

Plus, from the article: "...to build enough wind turbines and solar panels to supply at least half the electricity needed for global consumption 'would require two billions tons of coal to produce the concrete and steel, along with two billion barrels of oil to make the composite blades. [And] more than 90% of the world’s solar panels are built in Asia on coal-heavy electrical grids.'"

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/if-you-want-renewable-en...


> Soon you're going to run out of land for your renewables. Plus renewables are extremely intermittent power sources. Nuclear solves both the land-use and consistency problems.

I take no issue with people such as yourself advocating for nuclear power, but this particular argument is nonsense. You could generate all the energy used over a year in the US (100 quads or so) on roughly the amount of land that is currently used to produce corn for ethanol. Yeah, that's a lot of solar panels, and it may not be the way to get all our energy, but running out of land is NOT the issue.


No we won't.

There are plenty of studies on the topic. Those areas are there and already identified. Wind alone would just double to manage the Energiewende by 2050: https://www.naturschutz-energiewende.de/aktuelles/flaechenve...

I don't get your other argument.

If you push for renewables instead of wasting money on over due and over budget nuclear reactors, you can create an industry at home. Create massive amounts of jobs and improve on the technology.

It's already happening and those improvements are way faster than everything we've seen with nuclear in the recent decades.


So you chose to ignore his points re: the required fossil fuel inputs to create these clean renewable sources?


The world burns that much coal — which is apparently enough to make enough renewables for 50% of global electricity needs — every three months, and we don't, not even accidentally, set fire to wind turbines or solar cells at anything like that rate.


> If you push for renewables instead of wasting money on over due and over budget nuclear reactors

--- start quote ---

Ernst & Young (EY) has found that an average power and utility megaproject is delivered 35% over budget and two years behind schedule

Of the megaprojects surveyed, 64% were delayed and 57% were over budge. Almost three-quarters of hydropower, water, coal and nuclear infrastructure projects were over budget by 49% on average,

--- end quote ---

https://www.offshorewind.biz/2016/12/02/offshore-wind-projec...

"Data shows the avg. 50MW PV construction project delays cost $2M. The average solar construction project is delayed by about 20% with the consequences hovering around $2M in costs."

https://percepto.co/solar-construction-delays-budget-overrun...


> nuclear infrastructure projects were over budget by 49% on average,

Ahem.


Let me fix that quote for you:

"Almost three-quarters of hydropower, water, coal and nuclear infrastructure projects were over budget by 49% on average,".

ALL OF THEM. Not just nuclear.


You're the one promoting nuclear as if it's better than the rest in this regard.

Nuclear is… just another mega project, just like the rest.

You don't get to use that quote to say everything else is more expense when it's everything including your darling.


> You're the one promoting nuclear as if it's better than the rest in this regard.

Do not ascribe words to me that I didn't say or imply

> You don't get to use that quote to say everything else is more expense

I literally said nothing of the kind


Even ignoring all those words you used meaning to me what I said they mean (and hence unavoidably "implying" even if you now wish to say you were misunderstood, which is totally a thing I get and have experienced in reverse):

You know we can see your comments, right?

https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=illiarian

And you've got a… distinct… writing style, so I recognised you from a few days ago before seeing your user name:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35618522


> You know we can see your comments, right?

Yes, I do.

> And you've got a… distinct… writing style

Ad hominem is not as good an argument as you think it is.

So. This is what I actually wrote, and not what you pretend I wrote.

The original statement was this: "If you push for renewables instead of wasting money on over due and over budget nuclear reactors"

To which I replied: "Almost three-quarters of hydropower, water, coal and nuclear infrastructure projects were over budget by 49% on average"

Which means only one thing: renewable projects are just as prone to time and buget overruns as nuclear. That is it.

How you imagined what you think I wrote, I cannot even begin to comprehend.


This:

> Ad hominem is not as good an argument as you think it is.

Makes this:

> is totally a thing I get and have experienced in reverse

A case in point.

I'm not even going to bother now with the rest; the abrasiveness you approach this topic with is uninteresting to me, and does not help me learn new things.

That's also not an ad hominem, by the way; it's a critique, sure, but not even intended as a response to the attempted argument.


> Soon you're going to run out of land for your renewables.

No, you won't.

> 'would require two billions tons of coal to produce the concrete and steel, along with two billion barrels of oil to make the composite blades. [And] more than 90% of the world’s solar panels are built in Asia on coal-heavy electrical grids.'

Fantastic! The world burns that much coal every three months, so after 6 months we could close all the mines and coal power plants, and thereafter all the future PV will be made by renewable powered grids.


Except you won't have enough solar and wind alone to generate the needs of the world's power demands. I don't get why some people like yourself are so against nuclear when combined with solar and wind its the best of both worlds? We're all in agreement that coal needs to go, but switching to just solar and wind is not the sole answer and never will be. You will run out of land at some point. No one wants to look at fields of spinning turbines and solar panel arrays when you can get the same effect in a much smaller footprint.


I'm relatively positive about nuclear power: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35659464

Thing is, the best time to build it was the 60s. Now? There's a few cases where I think it's still the best option — ignoring politics, it would be great for shipping, and I'd be really happy if that somehow becomes a standard outside the military — but for most cases, it's just the most expensive solution to greenhouse gases, or joint-worst if you use LiIon as the storage solution.

And if you do want to ignore the political dimension, for example but not limited to the way that Israel will bomb any Iranian reactor just in case the latter might be weaponised, then to compare like-for-like you have to ask the same about a global HVDC grid — my fantasy-football solution, in that it's technically possible but still extremely unlikely.

> You will run out of land at some point

Ah, no. Not at present power use per person. Even England, which is not at all well-placed for solar, has enough land to be (electrically) powered by solar alone. Remember, civil infrastructure — buildings, rail lines, car parks, etc. — already has a huge footprint and PV can fit on almost any roof and between almost any gap.

(Also the wind can be offshore, apparently that's great for people who don't like the look of them on hilltops, less so for radar).


> Soon you're going to run out of land for your renewables.

I'm from Northern Germany where all the wind turbines are and you are wrong


> Soon you're going to run out of land for your renewables.

Ramping up from 40% to 100% increases land use by orders of magnitude? Did I miss something?


nope. you didn't miss anything.

we'd already be there if Bavaria and similar states hadn't blocked building wind farms in Bavaria, because of the bad looks, or myth busted infrasound, or myth busted bird mass extinctions, or very real existential angst of Munich's Siemens...


Isn't Siemens in the wind power business as well?


nuclear transforms mining rights into money, so does coal or oil or gas.

wind transforms the decentralized location of the plant into energy, so does solar. wind and solar transfer the heart of the profits from mining to decentralized, local communities.

in that context Siemens is publicly traded, and does what the board wants it to do. they had fig leave wind investments.

Germany has divested from solar production, battery production and wind plant production. _di_-vested.


> Nuclear produced only half of that in recent years.

It would have produced a lot more if German didn't shut down it's nuclear reactors. Plus, France produces over 70% of it's electricity from nuclear, sometimes over 80%.


> Wind alone produces ~20% of the recent years electricity in Germany.

Yearly production means nothing on the night when it produces single-digit percentages of its installed capacity, does it?


Other way around, the installed capacity is the meaningless number, the actual production is the only thing that matters.

By way of example: install PV upside down, "capacity" is the same, but now it's useless.


> Other way around, the installed capacity is the meaningless number, the actual production is the only thing that matters.

This is beautifully put, thank you


We can import electricity from the European grids we are connected to.

For example my region has recently brought up a 1.4 GW HVDC underwater cable, which can be used in both directions. It connects North Germany to Hydro power in Norway.


We - in Sweden - noticed this when we saw our electricity prices go through the roof due to those interconnects enabling German prices to trickle back up the lines. Thanks to the boneheaded "green" politicos in Germany shutting down nuclear power plants we'll be paying more for our electricity in the coming years. Please, German neighbours, vote out those watermelons and put some sense back in to the Bundestag.


Just to avoid any misunderstandings, the schedule to close all nuclear reactors in Germany by the end of 2022 was set by CDU/CSU together with the FDP. Which then went on to curb the buildup of renewables.


Back? Are you even aware that no party besides a small fascist party want nuclear back or did anything in recent years to stop the exit? The previous Government (today's largest opposition) had 16 years to stop the nuclear exit. They didn't. Even before Fukushima.

I wonder where you got this approach from since you've obviously not come up with it by yourself through research.


> Are you even aware that no party besides a small fascist party want nuclear back

A poll [1] done in 2008 found that 46% of the German population wanted to keep nuclear power online.

A poll [2] done in 2021 found that 53% of respondents saw a role for nuclear power in the "energiewende" (changeover from fossil to other power sources), 22% of them wanted nuclear to play a major role, 31% a smaller role.

In a poll done [3] in 2022 72% of the respondents wanted to postpone the shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants.

If your claim about that small fascist party holds truth the next Bundeskanzler will come from AfD. I guess this is not the case so either those other parties are not in line with their potential constituents or your claim of only AfD - which I assume is the small fascist party you're referring to - wanting nuclear power "back" (which is true by now, it used to be "wants to keep") is in error. Time will tell but in the meanwhile it is to be hoped that the next winter is a mild one.

[1] https://www.dw.com/en/46-percent-of-germans-want-nuclear-pow...

[2] https://yougov.de/topics/technology/articles-reports/2021/12...

[3] https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/...


If nuclear is so great in Sweden, why were so many plants closed there?


Due to the same "green" politicos having been in power the last 8 years [1]. The power plants they closed could have been kept in service - they had been recertified up to 2035 - but they closed them anyway. This was a political decision, not one based on demand - support for nuclear power has surged in Sweden - or technological deficiencies.

[1] https://08nytt.se/naringsliv/mp-erkanner-avvecklat-karnkraft...


Politics. Then politics. Then FUD and more politics.

As a result last year energy prices shot up and there was nothing to counterbalance energy shortages.


Energy is always politics.

Nuclear has been expensive in Sweden.


Nuclear power in Sweden was expensive due to the "effektskatt" [1] (power output tax) which was levied specifically on nuclear power, ostensibly to pay for dismantling nuclear power plants after they were shut down. This tax made up about 25% of the production costs in the end [2].

[1] https://naringslivets-medieinstitut.se/det-var-marknaden-som...

[2] https://skatteupproret.se/skatt-pa-karnkraft/


So it actually showed the real price of nuclear since dismantling is part of it.


The taxes and additional payments into the special fund established for this purpose [1] already cover the prospected costs of dismantling all nuclear power stations and treating/storing the waste (spent fuel as well as materials from dismantled reactors). While the additional "effektskatt" has been abolished in 2018 the payments to SKB continue. The total costs are estimated to end up at 171 billion kr allowing for a safety margin and taking price increases into account. Remaining costs as of 2024 are estimated to be 124 billion kr. The fund currently holds 80 billion kr, the additional 'effektskatt' brought in 38.5 billion kr, securities posted by the companies which run the nuclear power stations stand for another 59 billion kr. Payments into the fund continue, the proceeds of which are invested in state bonds and on the stock market. Even without these continuing payments and investments and disregarding compound interest the costs for dismantling current reactors and treating all waste has been paid already. As it stands the plan is for the remaining reactors to run until ~2045 [2]. Payments into the SKB fund will continue so by the time the last reactor is shut down the costs will have been paid several times over.

[1] https://skb.se/det-har-ar-skb/finansiering/

[2] https://www.karnavfallsradet.se/karnavfall-och-slutforvaring...


And yet power plant closures were entirely due to politics, not the cost.

Now the price of energy in Sweden quintuples depending on demand: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1271491/sweden-monthly-w... I am just so glad that the expensive energy is out of the picture. (That was sarcasm, I chose to pay for electricity coming from nuclear, and it's not meanigfully more expensive than other types)


> We can import electricity from the European grids we are connected to.

Ah yes. The magical grid that will surely have the capacity to supply all of Germany's power if suddenly there's night and no wind just in Germany (and nowhere else in Europe, stopping at the border, apparently).


This is rare and currently we have a diverse mix of electricity production. When wind gets more dominant, it will be offshore and connected to a larger North Sea grid. Then storage will be more important and also more viable.

I'd guess that in ten years the max capacity for wind electrical energy in my region (Northern Germany) is around 2 to 3 times larger than the max demand. Thus large scale storage will be build up.


> This is rare

This literally happened just 6 days ago.

> we have a diverse mix of electricity production.

Yes, yes we do: coal and biofuel (so more burning), and corn for biofuel is taking up 6% of Germany's land area.

> When wind gets more dominant, it will be offshore and connected to a larger North Sea grid

So, some magical future

> I'd guess that in ten years the max capacity for wind electrical energy in my region (Northern Germany) is around 2 to 3 times larger than the max demand.

Max capacity means nothing when production is low.

> Thus large scale storage will be build up.

More magical thinking (there are currently no grid-scale storage solutions that would've survived just one night from the link I provided)


> This literally happened just 6 days ago.

On what day it happened is independent of how often this happens, for how long, with what demand and the amount of other electricity supplies..

> So, some magical future

A nice slogan you have here. It sounds cute, but essentially it is pessimistic and anti-technology.

We heard this twenty years ago. This year the share of renewable energy for electricity production is 50%. In a decade it will be much higher. The prices for deployment are going down. The cost for nuclear is going up, nuclear projects often have huge cost overruns and are slow to deploy. Example: The 'new' Finnish EPR reactor is 8 billion Euros more expensive than planned (up from 3 billion to 11 billion Euros) and 13 years late. Without government invention the building company from France (Areva) would have been killed - it had to take a 5 billion Euro loss from building the power plant with a fixed-price contract.

> Max capacity means nothing when production is low.

A high max capacity means that it makes sense to invest in storage and backup technology.

> More magical thinking (there are currently no grid-scale storage solutions that would've survived just one night from the link I provided)

We also currently have not the wind dependence. In the future this will change with more offshore wind farms.

That has nothing to do with 'magical thinking', it has to do with investments into technology and the created market conditions. Grid scale in the future means that there will be a large amount of storage options, backup supplies and diverse forms of demand steering.


> On what day it happened is independent of how often this happens, for how long, with what demand and the amount of other electricity supplies..

This was a regular sping night in a nation of 80 million people in the middle of Europe. Which means that for a lot of the rest of Europe it was also a quite night.

> It sounds cute, but essentially it is pessimistic and anti-technology.

No. It's realistic. Every time you show problems with intermittent generation by renewables, the answer is "sometime in unknown future we will surely build enough, and enough grid storage to boot".

> The 'new' finnish reactor is 8 billion Euros more expensive than planned

--- start quote ---

Almost three-quarters of hydropower, water, coal and nuclear infrastructure projects were over budget by 49% on average,

https://www.offshorewind.biz/2016/12/02/offshore-wind-projec...

--- end quote ---

Cost overruns are not unique to nuclear. Especially considering how underinvested nuclera has been for the past 20-30 people who keep spreading FUD.

When there's political will, there are results. Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant in China: 6.1 GW nameplate capacity. Built over 14 years at 1 reactor per 6 years. Operational. Estimated cost 16 bln USD.

> We also currently have not the wind dependence. In the future this will change.

I shudder to think about the future where we depend on whether or not the wind will blow at night.

> it has to do with investments into technology

There are also laws of physics and reality.


> This was a regular sping night in a nation of 80 million people in the middle of Europe. Which means that for a lot of the rest of Europe it was also a quite night.

Nothing happened. In ten years we have 80% renewable. Again, nothing will happen.

> the answer is "sometime in unknown future we will surely build enough, and enough grid storage to boot".

Look at a nuclear power plant. If one starts building today, the reactor could be ready in 5, 10 or twenty years. In Finnland the EPR was 13 years late.

Renewable can be deployed much faster and more reliable.

> Almost three-quarters of hydropower, water, coal and nuclear infrastructure projects were over budget by 49% on average,

The new Finnish reactor was 3.6 times more expensive than planned. That's a much larger price increase.

> When there's political will,

of a dictatorship

> there are results. Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant in China: 6.1 GW nameplate capacity. Built over 14 years at 1 reactor per 6 years. Operational. Estimated cost 16 bln USD.

Try to do the same in Western Europe...

Btw, China deploys two large coal power plant blocks every week. -> to quote you: "When there's political will, there are results."

See the share of nuclear in China:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China#/m...

Tiny.

> I shudder to think about the future where we depend on whether or not the wind will blow at night.

I don't.

> There are also laws of physics and reality.

Another slogan. What does it have to do with energy politics and technology?


Yes absolutely, if the goal is co2 reduction.


> Yearly production means nothing on the night when it produces single-digit percentages of its installed capacity, does it?

It's even worse than that actually because the electricity demand isn't linear during the year.

So technologies which can produce reliably during the high loads are inherently worth more than the others.




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