A/B testing and the like will only guide you to local maxima. Human thought and intuition, ie design, will retain its importance as the impetus for original ideas which can then be optimized through testing. And users will continue to evaluate software as they do today, "with their own eyes and emotions." Sorry, nerds.
Sure, small A/B testing will probably only get you to a local maxima. I've never understood why most people think A/B testing is just about changing the color of a button -- it's that, but it's so much more. It's about testing any idea, no matter how big a change it is.
Most people don't lack original ideas, just like there's no shortage of people who would like to be major league baseball players. What people do lack is the ability (or perhaps just the will) to evaluate their ideas objectively.
And while users may evaluate software with their own eyes and emotions, that behavior manifests itself in objective, quantifiable outcomes that have some impact on your business. If measurable user behavior doesn't impact your business, I'd guess you aren't really in a user-driven business.
Suffice it to say that if my clients included somebody into boating they could purchase a more-than-modest yacht with the gains from A/B testing. If it ever happens I'll suggest Local Maxima for the name.
