One of the longest lived octopus species we know of has a lifespan of about 5 years, even if they were more intelligent than humans they'd have a hard time establishing a society only being able to establish 5 years worth of knowledge per individual. Let's make longevity treatments for octopi and see if they learn enough to make/join society.

Airplane with bullet holes meme.

Think it through: If a long lived social octopus species regularly evolved and made civilization that collapsed its species, then the only similar species left would be one that is absurdly solitary and absurdly short lived. Think about it. Evolution is counterintuitive.

I’d even go so far as to say that human civilisation struggles with the longevity of humans. We’re rather short lived compared to the impacts our actions can have, as a technologically enabled and socially civilised species.

Life really is short. If our lifespan were twice or ten times longer, the whole thing would be a different ballgame.

At least it's long enough for us to recognize it and use it as a source of ambition to make the most of it. I've recently turned 40 and I have a mild panic that I haven't done anything worthy, but there's still time ahead.

> I haven't done anything worthy,

Keeping yourself alive for 40 years. Not a minor victory.

Indeed, by 1850s standards, I'm doing a great job :D

That if-then logic block is broken

Octopuses will never be able to evolve anything similar to an human societies. To start because they are fiercely solitary and glad to jump to cannibal behavior at the first opportunity. Is a non-social species that will not cooperate with other individuals. This is not a question of how much time you put in the mix. They are a different animal that wants different things than us.

Airplane with bullet holes meme.

Think it through: If a long lived social octopus species regularly evolved and made civilization that collapsed its species, then the only similar species left would be one that is absurdly solitary and absurdly short lived. Think about it. Evolution is counterintuitive.

>they are fiercely solitary and glad to jump to cannibal behavior at the first opportunity

You could probably say similar things about early humans.

I wouldn't expect that. Primates cooperate all the time with birds, rodents and deer for food or protection. We are brain-wired to search for allies inter and intraspecific. Early humans would most probably do the same.

Cephalopods, on the other side, had never been reported cooperating with other species. We still don't know a lot about many species of course so that could change, but even the squids that are strongly gregarious do it in a lose "save yourself" way.

There is a sci-fi book that covered this a little, its the Children of Time series, rather good look into a "uplift" virus going wrong. (used in Children of Ruin, the second in the series on Octopuses)