2. Interact with said people.

3. Occasionally look at job postings to see what’s up.

4. Draw conclusions, usually via some sort of triangulation (i.e., not just using one source).

That’s the process.

Other than that, it’s anecdotal with many, many data points, and it’s completely not scientific (nor was it claimed to be).

Feel free to believe me or not — I am just an observer and a peripheral participant in the performance art that is the tech world.