Elon Musk, notably a stickler for following regulations.

You do NOT fuck with ITAR. You are personally liable for any violations and it can result in jail time for you, personally. And the company is liable too.

I would hope anybody in that chain of command knows that, and tells him to go fuck himself if he drops even the hint of exporting it.

The guy has violated his agreements with the SEC, just recently lit $44B on fire, and risked SpaceX's contracts over smoking weed on Joe Rogan.

I'm not convinced he's all that influenced by consequences.

That may be, but the engineers under him are not protected by his money. That's why I call out that you are individually liable as well.

Sell to China, tweet about overbearing government regulators after the fact.

Sell? China could also say "Nice gigafactory you've got there. It sure would be a shame if something were to happen to it."

It would also be a shame if FSD got an OTA update to drive on the other side of the road. By accident, of course. Bugs are so hard to discover.

Any individual going to war against a global power with unlimited funding generally doesn't succeed.

Generally, but this individual has his own spaceworthy rockets, which is more than halfway to an ICBM.